Burry advised to sell 23 months ago. A genius is who recognizes he is a one trick pony. To give him credit, he deleted the account and acknowledged he was wrong. I think he even went long.
The 2022 bear market might have had one last down leg after the October 22 low, a dead cat bounce followed by another sell off. But GPT 3.5 came out in November 22, and started a new gold rush, and ended any chance of that happening. Easy to see in hindsight now. Cathy woods selling her NVDA position around the same time as that tweet from Burry seems like a far bigger mistake.
I just re-watched the Big Short. The guy is a genius from a mathematical point of view, but he got paid pennies on the dollar (after taking a ridiculous amount of risk). How intelligent do you how to be to realize that if you're right, they still will not pay you (because your counterparty is the one pricing your asset and they're white collar criminals). This other guy (in the movie) at least asked: "we'll buy your shit, but only if you tell us how you're fucking us" (not an exact quote, but you get the gist). So huge risk + overleverage + refusal to cut your losses + SURVIVOR bias = here's a genius. Nothing against the guy, though (there's way worse in WS), and I hope he is happy and healty. PS: also, as @Laissez Faire would say: OK, sell. Target? Stop? Timeframe?
Don't if he is happy and healthy but he likely still wealthy ... and wealthier more than any on ET (or on reddit!!!!!!!!!!) can say. Hold his beer. Bwahaha
I never understood why Burry didn't just load up on puts on the large banks. That would have cost him far less capital and his shareholders wouldn't be yelling at him for all the risk he was taking via CDS'. I mean all the large banks & insurance companies collapsed like 80%+. He could made billions just buying monthly puts & rolling them. I remember I owned the -2X Financials ETF at the time (SKF) and since it was using total return swaps via JP Morgan as the counter party some people were nervous the swap would fail at some point. In retrospect I should have just loaded up on XLF puts after the Bear Stearns collapse. That would have been easy money.
I'm not sure if the bear market would have continued. I think rates peaked in the last week of October. I think that was the real catalyst for the come back. Of course when Silicon Valley Bank, Signature & First Republic collapsed that event wiped out the Fed's QT efforts and flooded the market with liquidity. Chat GPT definitely ballooned the NASDAQ outperformance & the rise of the hyperscalers.
I been bearish past 3 years, but I hedge. I follow trucking stocks, if they not hauling, it is a clue FOR ME, the S&P rising on hope. JB Hunt Transport made double top beginning of 2024. USA inflation is bad and getting worse with layoffs, mortgages at 6.5% kicks out many, but if you have cash, you can get good discounts on houses. But most people have debt and growing. https://www.fool.com/money/research...most recent debt payment,in most of the 2000s. Barry can always go back to being a physician.
The top traders make plenty of wrong calls - the thing is they will change their mind & positions when they realize they are wrong before to much damage is done. Looks like 2023 was a good year for Burry/Scion.