From the NY Post, but still... https://nypost.com/2024/01/04/business/michael-burry-clams-up-after-doomsday-predictions-falter/ ‘Big Short’ predictor Michael Burry clams up after doomsday prophecies never panned out By Social Links forLydia Moynihan Published Jan. 4, 2024, 2:22 p.m. ET Michael Burry kept remarkably quiet for most of 2023, and some speculate it’s because of a slew of doomsaying market predictions that never panned out – and which have finally taught him to keep his big mouth shut...
He should have been busy building bunkers like Zuck in Hawaii or like these guys: https://www.theguardian.com/news/20...-bunkers-apocalypse-survival-richest-rushkoff
Forecasting is hard, especially for permabears. The GFC taught a generation of market players that big macro bear calls were the path to fame and riches, when the truth couldn't be more the opposite. It also arrived in the nick of time to seemingly "vindicate" the old-school 1980s/90s era permabears, like Ron Paul and Marc Faber. However, the piddling bear market we saw after the steepest rise in interest rates in 40 years has pretty much extinguished the permabear as a species. Hugh Hendry is gone, Russell Clark is gone, Chanos is gone, John Hussman is hanging on by his fingernails to the remaining pennies of AUM. I'll miss the entertainment.
Why is forecasting needed anymore? ETF mania has taken over the investment world and you can be an AVERAGE trader/quant/macro player and make a killing. Since GFC´s S&P 500 low at 666, everybody and his grandmother invests into US markets. Chinese and HK investors are overrunning US brokers with account openings. Hang Seng index and China 50 Stoxx index not tradable. US markets are idiot proof. BUT THE PH..UCKING DIP! Easy.
Over the years, I feel I am pretty good with predictions... It's my timing...That's my biggest issue!!