META Future Probabilities (FA)

Discussion in 'Stocks' started by TazTheLaz, Aug 20, 2022.

  1. TazTheLaz

    TazTheLaz

    Hello EliteTrader,

    I have done a DCF analysis for Facebook, and I have 3 different scenarios that I came up with; however, I would like some feedback as to how probable each one is.

    3 scenarios:
    1. Profit continues to grow roughly 10% per year, and Facebook remains as a “going concern”. Intrinsic Value: $382.13
    2. Profit Stagnates (1% assumed growth), and dividends are paid out instead of retaining earnings. Intrinsic Value: $205.11
    3. Margins decline, and the company slowly decays (-5% assumed growth). Intrinsic Value: $135.57
    Here are the probabilities I assigned to each scenario:
    1. 45%
    2. 50%
    3. 5%
    The intrinsic value based on these probabilities would be roughly $271.20, however, I think this may be a bit too high. Are my probabilities too optimistic or pessimistic?


     
    Last edited: Aug 20, 2022
  2. optaiwan

    optaiwan

    meta's cash flow from its operations are still very outstanding compared with other companies. i own a very small chuck of the stock and plan to add more. but i want to hear more about your take on this stock. Will metaverse become another mold to this company?
     
  3. TazTheLaz

    TazTheLaz

    Honestly, the Metaverse is going nowhere. It is just a silly little video game, and I have huge doubts that anything will come of it, outside of being a cut and paste of VRChat.

    Besides the Metaverse, FB, Instagram, and WhatsApp are all very good businesses, which are sure to generate cash flow.