Question is, why are we still here? Why is the market still exuberant? The market is waiting for more stimulus, which I’m pretty sure it will receive. But there is another issue that no one is talking about.
Agreed, the Fed and Government unleashed a nuclear bomb in Fiscal and Monetary Stimulus. The markets do not give a fuck about the 2nd wave, its already priced in. If another shutdown...then yes maybe...but we are still in a bull market.
The market is in neither a bull or bear market. It's stuck in crappy range 3000 - 3200...for over a month now. Everytime we approach 3200, a wave of sellers come in and hammer it back down to 3000 in one or two days (5 to 6% mini crashes). When it gets around 3000 the impatient "buy-on-the dip" crowd with hoards of cash come rushing in to buy it. The only people making money right now are vol premium sellers.
Agreed - a true bull market we would see the tops go higher. The market is vacillating. I believe, as more real data comes through, the direction will be more clear.
Naz is setting new highs every day, and it's even more impressive for some individual stocks. The overall trend has been, and remains, UP. Of course, that could change at any time.
Nasdaq (QQQs) rally is almost being entirely driven by just 5 stocks which make up almost 50% of the index. Same 5 stocks make up 20% of the S&P 500. I doubt an equity rally can be sustained with only a handful of tech and biotech stocks carrying the whole market.
Going to be an ugly show when those 5 finally purge due to how crowded they are in general (+ all of the ETFs / funds they are built into).
Amazing there is even a debate over the trend. Look at the stockcharts people. A pullback is not a bear market but, a way for the market to allow traders to get in. The trend is your friend. Until, you are stupid enough to trade against the trend then, you deserve to lose all your monies. Do you really think the big boys (hedge funds, mutual funds, brokers and banks) care what you think about the market? In the meantime, monies are being made by the big boys and traders who understand and respect the trend.