Market Regime : Trend or Trading Range

Discussion in 'Automated Trading' started by HawaiianIceberg, Apr 30, 2025 at 11:14 AM.

  1. Continuing a discussion with @MarkBrown on how to differentiate (automatically) between a trend and a trading range. Thank you for being open to discuss it.

    Curious, how often you update your bounded limits?



    Inspired by this post:
    https://www.elitetrader.com/et/thre...otage-specifically.384300/page-3#post-6125000
     
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  2. MarkBrown

    MarkBrown

    do you have a software platform that will plot range bars? if not we will use whatever chart you have. i want you to be able to follow along.

    the market has two main phases momentum (trend, pulse) and (rtm, chop) reversion to the mean.

    in this thread i will discuss how to determine with the least amount of lag how to determine trend from chop. then you can adjust your trading style to the current dominate regime.

    [​IMG]


    [​IMG]
     
    Last edited: Apr 30, 2025 at 11:57 AM
  3. Time bars are my preference, but I do have a platform that plots range bars. If that's what best to discuss this, then I'm game.
     
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  4. MarkBrown

    MarkBrown

    what is this chart 5 min? also what platform you have so i can program to it?

    found it 5 minute 4/28/25 we are 1 hour difference - i'm on chi time and you ny.

    [​IMG]

    on price a better moving average
    subchart 1 smoothed velocity
    subchart 2 raw velocity with a fixed channel and expansion bands.

    the market is trendy coming out of chop prior to this action shown all the price action was tight within the channel. there were two moves here the initial down and the response reversion to the mean.

    many trading platforms have momentum but from that we need to extract velocity. but i will work with what you have..
     
    Last edited: Apr 30, 2025 at 12:34 PM
  5. 5 min is my preferred timeframe, and ninjatrader for futures

    What're we lookin at here?

    The middle plot looks like a smoothed version of lower plot with almost no lag.

    I would guess the envelope on the bottom plot defines your limits of chop?
     
    MarkBrown likes this.
  6. MarkBrown

    MarkBrown

    ninja trader has range bars if you use those - it's a whole different and better world. many traders can't advance because of time interjected falsely into price action. but that's a whole other subject. i will work within your parameters with what you have to the best i can.

    next i will work on a automated system that puts all this together and give out the code. tell me about your risk and profit targets and how you get them or what you would like to use. then we will discuss the entire concept and how to improve it.
     
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  7. I dont have a defined risk or profit target, it's dependent on the PA. Generally my targets fall into one of these three categories:

    upload_2025-4-30_12-59-5.png
     
    MarkBrown likes this.
  8. Thank you for taking the time :fistbump:
     
    MarkBrown likes this.
  9. Automated day trading is very difficult. It takes human perception and interpretation to understand that very short timeframe. Anything else you think you understand is from sheer hindsight coincidence and circumstance.

    Everyday the market is part art, part science and that spectrum can deviate widely. Day trading has a huge element of emotions and erraticness to decipher on when deciding to buy and finally sell

    Back to my original question....for you automated traders...what % do you generate on your account on average per day/week/month
    It's like pulling teeth asking people to reveal their trading performance. If you're ashame or don't want to reveal...then just say so, and I'll drop it
     
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  10. MarkBrown

    MarkBrown

    Systematic Trader Index | CTA Indexes | IASG

    this is an industry benchmark (above), there are some stellar gainers amongst manager (below).

    Systematic Trader Index | CTA Indexes | IASG
     
    HawaiianIceberg likes this.