I'm trading a tiny amount, but so many times price comes within a penny or a few pennies of my sell price, and then reverses. What on earth is going on? I'm talking something like 200 shares of a major stock like MSFT or TSLA. Is there only me and two other guys trading, and all of the market data is fake? I just had an order to sell 200 MSFT at 247.11, and I finally gave in and got out before that. As soon as I sold, it jumped up past my target. This happens again and again and again. I know it makes no sense to question it since I trade very small, but it has happened so many times now. Earlier today, it came within a penny of my target and reversed. This happens almost every single day. It makes no sense because 200 shares is absolutely nothing compared to the daily volume. Anybody else have this issue?
It happens to everyone all the time. The only reason it is so visceral to you is because that is all you notice and remember. You are forgetting all the times you hit your target right near the peak/trough, and all the times your stop was perfect and survived a reversal into profit by a few ticks. Trust your system, there is no cabal out to get you. You just aren't that important to think the market is all about you, and the cabal is out to get you.
Big fish hire little fish to keep track of every trading style. Big fish move the market and write the chart you are trading from.
Unless you're keeping things written down it may well be confirmation bias as stated above. Don't think you stated your stop/target size, but note that small stops/targets necessarily trigger a lot due to randomness... to state the obvious. Brokers love small stops/targets.
It is like that expression I have seen before. "Rounders" had it in the movie... "Nobody remembers all the wins, but they always remember all the losses." Something like that.
If the dude had worked out a system, he would have already accounted for these situations as a matter of course to be expected x% of the time. What makes you think our guy has a system sarge?
Because he is close but no cigar? "...I know it makes no sense to question it since I trade very small, but it has happened so many times now. Earlier today, it came within a penny of my target and reversed..." It seems the system is showing good entries, but his TP/SL just need a tiny bit of tweaking.