JPow has said, "We're going to raise rates up to the point that they become restrictive and hold them there until the inflation rate gets down to 2%". If he sticks to that plan, rates won't go all that high, but will remain high enough, long enough to be recessionary. If he wants to quell inflation, this is the MINIMUM he should do. Investors shouldn't be hoping for something better.... unless he caves, of course. Apparently paring down the Fed's balance sheet is even more restrictive than higher interest rates and a problem for credit liquidity, so is not being emphasized at this time, in spite of claims of "paring Fed balance sheet by $95B/mo". (?). I dunno.
Economics about monetary policy....ugggh,....what is this....a sleepy college class on theory, Talk instead about your trading account, performance numbers, metrics, history and mindset, ideology, etc misc 2022,
It looks like they have only shaved 200 billion so far https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WALCL September looks like they reduced by 30 billion. They are certainly not doing a 100 billion a month. Fed Fund futures though haven't been pricing any rate cuts for a bit like they were. Market right now is expecting 4-5% for Dec 23.