Market Cap - F 60 Billion, GM 51 Billion, TSLA 24 Billion

Discussion in 'Options' started by FXforex, Feb 11, 2014.

  1. FXforex

    FXforex

    Market Cap - F 60 Billion, GM 51 Billion, TSLA 24 Billion



    • TSLA at $197.00
    • 190 Feb14 weekly puts at $2.09


    IMO ....... TSLA is grossly over valued. I am thinking of buying the 190 Feb14 weekly puts. Maybe today or Wednesday. Will update when/if I open the position.
     
  2. FXforex

    FXforex

    • TSLA at $199.13
    • Bought 1 contract 190 Feb14 weekly put at $1.51
     
  3. Doesn't matter that it's over valued. You simply don't short a momentum stock. TSLA has momentum, and you will lose on this trade.
     
  4. Earnings Wed 19th post market...

    Personally I like the March 160 Put for 4.25 - give you some time to let stock fall after the run into earnings.

    With the weekly ending so soon (14th) you're hoping for a huge downgrade, or another car fire.... not a bet I'd take. Plus you're OTM, so if it moves down a little do you take a profit of 50$ ? (decay going to kill you) or do you hope to strike it big .... which usually means 100% loss.
     
  5. TSLA:

    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-...stors-anticipate-foreign-sale.html?cmpid=yhoo

    http://wallstcheatsheet.com/stocks/...-on-chinas-stronger-subsidy-plan.html/?ref=YF

    http://www.forbes.com/sites/dalebus...-tesla-so-does-the-bachelor/?partner=yahootix

    http://blogs.wsj.com/moneybeat/2014/02/11/tesla-shares-hit-200-question-is-how-hard/?mod=yahoo_hs

    http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=TSLA+Key+Statistics

    http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=TSLA&t=1y&l=off&z=l&q=l&c=

    Trade:
    with TSLA at 196.62
    Buy the Jun 185 call and sell the March 190 call for a net debit of $1,175.00

    at March expiration (3/21):

    Price............................Profit / Loss........................ROI %
    138.75........................ (417.00).......................... -35.49%
    151.88................................ 0.00................................. 0.00%
    159.29........................... 279.80.............................. 23.81%
    180.91........................ 1336.80............................ 113.77%
    185.00......................... 1536.70........................... 130.78%
    190.00......................... 1867.60........................... 158.94%
    202.53.......................... 1443.80.......................... 122.88%
    224.15............................. 795.20............................. 67.68%
    245.78............................. 376.00............................. 32.00%

    (assuming vol constant since you have to sell back the June to make these numbers)
     
  6. FXforex

    FXforex

    UPDATE

    Position still open, 2 days to expiry.

    [​IMG]

    TSLA 5-Day Chart - Green dot bought 1 contract 190 Feb14 weekly put at $1.51
     
  7. Thanks for posting your trade FX and also your info on my GS post. I will keep an eye on this one too. The option premium on this stock is insane, but given the volatility, I guess it is warranted. If you are still holding, it looks like TSLA will open down today, giving you some nice returns. Good luck.

    I would be worried buying an option so close to expiry, but this one seems to be working out.
     
  8. FXforex

    FXforex

    UPDATE

    Position still open, 1 day to expiry.

    [​IMG]

    TSLA 5-Day Chart - Green dot bought 1 contract 190 Feb14 weekly put at $1.51
     
  9. This stock has a range of $10+ intraday. Crazy to watch. Tempting to pick up some puts on the last day before expiry for a lotterty ticket :)
     
  10. FXforex

    FXforex


    UPDATE

    Position expired worthless.

    [​IMG]

    TSLA 5-Day Chart - Green dot bought 1 contract 190 Feb14 weekly put at $1.51
     
    #10     Feb 14, 2014