Market Cap - F 60 Billion, GM 51 Billion, TSLA 24 Billion TSLA at $197.00 190 Feb14 weekly puts at $2.09 IMO ....... TSLA is grossly over valued. I am thinking of buying the 190 Feb14 weekly puts. Maybe today or Wednesday. Will update when/if I open the position.
Doesn't matter that it's over valued. You simply don't short a momentum stock. TSLA has momentum, and you will lose on this trade.
Earnings Wed 19th post market... Personally I like the March 160 Put for 4.25 - give you some time to let stock fall after the run into earnings. With the weekly ending so soon (14th) you're hoping for a huge downgrade, or another car fire.... not a bet I'd take. Plus you're OTM, so if it moves down a little do you take a profit of 50$ ? (decay going to kill you) or do you hope to strike it big .... which usually means 100% loss.
TSLA: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-...stors-anticipate-foreign-sale.html?cmpid=yhoo http://wallstcheatsheet.com/stocks/...-on-chinas-stronger-subsidy-plan.html/?ref=YF http://www.forbes.com/sites/dalebus...-tesla-so-does-the-bachelor/?partner=yahootix http://blogs.wsj.com/moneybeat/2014/02/11/tesla-shares-hit-200-question-is-how-hard/?mod=yahoo_hs http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=TSLA+Key+Statistics http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=TSLA&t=1y&l=off&z=l&q=l&c= Trade: with TSLA at 196.62 Buy the Jun 185 call and sell the March 190 call for a net debit of $1,175.00 at March expiration (3/21): Price............................Profit / Loss........................ROI % 138.75........................ (417.00).......................... -35.49% 151.88................................ 0.00................................. 0.00% 159.29........................... 279.80.............................. 23.81% 180.91........................ 1336.80............................ 113.77% 185.00......................... 1536.70........................... 130.78% 190.00......................... 1867.60........................... 158.94% 202.53.......................... 1443.80.......................... 122.88% 224.15............................. 795.20............................. 67.68% 245.78............................. 376.00............................. 32.00% (assuming vol constant since you have to sell back the June to make these numbers)
UPDATE Position still open, 2 days to expiry. TSLA 5-Day Chart - Green dot bought 1 contract 190 Feb14 weekly put at $1.51
Thanks for posting your trade FX and also your info on my GS post. I will keep an eye on this one too. The option premium on this stock is insane, but given the volatility, I guess it is warranted. If you are still holding, it looks like TSLA will open down today, giving you some nice returns. Good luck. I would be worried buying an option so close to expiry, but this one seems to be working out.
UPDATE Position still open, 1 day to expiry. TSLA 5-Day Chart - Green dot bought 1 contract 190 Feb14 weekly put at $1.51
This stock has a range of $10+ intraday. Crazy to watch. Tempting to pick up some puts on the last day before expiry for a lotterty ticket
UPDATE Position expired worthless. TSLA 5-Day Chart - Green dot bought 1 contract 190 Feb14 weekly put at $1.51