The question, at least in my mind, isn't whether the numbers are overstated. There is no doubt they are. But whether this overstatement is limited to just the UK or whether this same issue exists elsewhere. With the complete and total mess that we have seen in government reporting and the political narratives that we've seen evolve from Covid, you know it has to be the case.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/ar...review-way-PHE-counts-coronavirus-deaths.html Matt Hancock launches urgent review into fiasco at Public Health England as it's revealed anyone who has ever died after testing positive for Covid-19 has been recorded as a 'coronavirus death' - even if they were hit by a bus Over 1,000 people may have had their deaths wrongly recorded as Covid-19 Public Health England admits it does not have a time cut-off built into its records Someone who dies months after recovery is still classified as a Covid-19 patient 'The public are worried that things aren't getting better in England,' expert said By SAM BLANCHARD SENIOR HEALTH REPORTER FOR MAILONLINE PUBLISHED: 04:39 EDT, 17 July 2020 | UPDATED: 09:15 EDT, 17 July 2020 Health Secretary Matt Hancock today ordered Public Health England to review the way it counts deaths because of a 'statistical flaw' that means officials are 'over-exaggerating' the daily toll. PHE counts people as victims if they die of any cause any time after testing positive for Covid-19 – even if they were hit by a bus months after beating the life-threatening infection, top academics revealed last night. The method is likely why the daily fatality tolls are not dropping quickly in England because survivors never truly recover from the disease as their deaths are blamed on the coronavirus – regardless of their real cause. One of the leading experts who uncovered the flaw told MailOnline his 'best guess' was that more than 1,000 people have had their deaths wrongly recorded as caused by Covid-19. Dr Yoon Loke, a pharmacologist at the University of East Anglia, warned that it is 'not a good way of collecting data', has had a significant impact in the past two months and is happening because PHE 'chose a quick and easy technique'. And the daily death tolls may not hit zero 'for months to come' because of a long tail of elderly people who beat Covid-19 but will die of other causes, Dr Loke added. He uncovered the flaw alongside Oxford University's Professor Carl Heneghan. Dr Loke said: 'By this PHE definition, no-one with Covid in England is allowed to ever recover from their illness.' Prime Minister Boris Johnson confirmed in a press conference today that the Health Secretary has ordered PHE to review the way it is counting people's deaths. It comes after a string of mistakes at PHE, including stopping testing and tracing at the peak of Britain's outbreak. Tory MP David Davis this month told MailOnline the organisation had 'made a complete mess' of Covid-19 testing. +3 Dr Loke's analysis shows that 'all settings' deaths (red bar) remain very high in England even as hospital deaths (blue bar) - which the Office for National Statistics says should make up two thirds of the total - have plummeted A Department of Health spokesperson said today: 'The Health Secretary has asked Public Health England to conduct an urgent review into the reporting of deaths statistics, aimed at providing greater clarity on the number of fatalities related to Covid-19 as we move past the peak of the virus.' The way PHE counts victims on a daily basis works by it combing through records of people who have tested positive for Covid-19 in the past to see if they have died. If they have, their death is automatically added to the coronavirus count. It means that if, for example, somebody tested positive in April but recovered and was then hit by a bus in July, they would still be counted as a Covid-19 victim. Dr Loke pointed out that unless PHE changes its system, all 292,000 people who have tested positive so far will be added to the Covid-19 death toll when they eventually die. The Department of Health, which uses PHE's data for its daily announcements, has so far counted 45,119 fatalities with 66 announced yesterday. The 'statistical flaw' should not drastically affect the total number of deaths but means the ongoing death tolls appear worse than the reality. The Office for National Statistics - which is not affected by the counting method - has confirmed at least 50,698 people have died in England and Wales up to July 3. Public Health England admitted it is counting the deaths of anyone who tests positive for Covid-19, regardless of how long afterwards they died. Dr Loke said: 'It seems that PHE regularly looks for people on the NHS database who have ever tested positive, and simply checks to see if they are still alive or not. 'PHE does not appear to consider how long ago the Covid-19 test result was, nor whether the person has been successfully treated in hospital and discharged to the community. 'Anyone who has tested Covid-19 positive but subsequently died at a later date of any cause will be included on the PHE Covid-19 death figures... even if they had a heart attack or were run over by a bus three months later.' The pharmacologist, who published his findings in a blog post last night, said the bizarre way of recording deaths is why there are such wide variations in daily figures
What great news, Tsing Toad. Go celebrate. Take your mask off and hug some like-minded strangers. Everyone knows it's all just a worldwide farce to dethrone your Dear Leader, Victim-in-Chief Trump.
sorry, Fred. I can see you posted, but all I see under your name is a blank space. Apologies. Its probably about time for the annual clearing of the block to see if you're a different person.
Heh, clearly you are the same. Bonus points for the clever use of Tsing Toad, though. But in being serious, is there any reason why you don't want to know if the death count is being overcounted? Wouldn't you want to know the true case count, death count, etc so you could drive policy accordingly? Oh, and because you couldn't see my posts, you may not have seen that I am for masks where they are appropriate, and I am not voting for Trump this time around. Just to clarify a few points. Have a happy day!
I don't know how accurate these reports are that you posted. But I'm guessing you're trying to draw a parallel with the US, because you don't really give a shit about the UK. Meanwhile, most experts believe that COVID cases are underreported: https://www.google.com/search?q=cov...OAKHRX0Dj8Q_AUIDSgA&biw=910&bih=1007&dpr=1.88 Further, hospitals in your country are getting swamped, and there is regular reporting of refrigerated trucks holding an overflow of dead bodies. Meanwhile, you've got a thing about overreporting...
You are correct, my concern for the UK in this article is as it relates to what is happening in the United States. The only thing I care about is the proper reporting of the data. That's it. I understand that the "experts" believe that Covid cases are under reported. I also believe the total cases are under reported due to a whole host of issues, the biggest being the asymptomatic representation of the virus is a large swathe of the populace. The question is more about whether deaths are under reported. My believe is a resounding YES in this case because of several important factors... 1. Hospitals get more money for patients who died and as listed as a COVID death, and what's that saying about showing me the incentive and I'll show you the behavior? 2. The CDC changed the requirement for COVID deaths and can now include "probable" COVID complication (I can provide the source for that if you would like) 3. Numerous cases both at home and around the world where patients who died had their families objecting that their loved one was classified as a "COVID" death when they said their loved one died from something other than COVID and was never tested. Its kind of a "where there's smoke..." thing. As for the reports on refrigerated trucks...come on. That's sensationalist reporting. Happened in NYC and they went crazy about it. Just because they ordered the trucks for a supposed surge that never happened.
No, in fact that was what I thought we were talking about. I'm merely pointing out that the same reporting was used in NYC and it was all the rage back in March and April. Turned out many of the trucks were brought on because the forecast was for a surge in dead bodies which never did overwhelm the morgues.
I'm surprised to see "neener neener" from you. When's the last time you took some time off from this site?