So from my perspective the larger charts Daily / Weekly have been bearish for months. Particularly RTY was giving hints back as early as end of November. There was a buy signal on ES/NQ back in Late January and I eased up on being so bearish and went more neutral and was looking for longs as well as shorts intra-day, but since than we've been stuffed at Daily resistance on ES twice(4581) and NQ/RTY couldn't even be bothered to make it to Daily resistance and failed to even get there. Now moving closer to current action. We currently 8 Daily candles in a row for NQ where we couldn't even close above a minimal benchmark level(which is called minimal because normally if there's even a small amount of serious buying interest we can at least make it to that level if not close above) and 3 of those most recent 8 days we couldn't even reach up and touch it(which I currently have as 14250). You could have the point of view that market is holding up pretty well all things given considering the TA, plus news as a catalyst for lower. However, if you look at this way. You know how sometimes you see a larger chart that puts in a trigger that you know is high probability bearish? And you see a smaller chart that keeps popping up allowing you really good short entries? That's basically what appears to be happening here. It's not a good thing that the market is holding like it is, because buyers are coming in and the bus is just getting loaded more and more, which if we finally have a barn burner move down, it's just that many more longs to puke out. So, basically want to see what metrics or anything really at all, as to why people think this market is bullish or even why any up moves have a reasonable probability to hold? Just to be clear I am not saying we can't still have some nice moves up, to go all in short near the lows or that I won't change my views upon new information and/or us closing above benchmark levels(Like I did late January). Just speaking on like longer term perspective, nothing I see as of right now says up moves up have a very good probability to sustain. Thanks for anyone that takes the time to post a serious reply from the bull perspective.
Best I can say is that I need to see how we close out the week, but it sure don't look good for the bulls right now. Especially because so many are saying, why the panic we are "only" down xPct no biggie and everything is so calm and orderly lol.
Well, fair enough I guess, understand what you're saying, but we better have a decent sized account and slowly averaging in if we're buying on the first cannon shot. Through back testing 22 years of data, based on both the pattern of momentum and how long momentum has been negative. The probabilities of up moves holding here are astronomically low. Essentially requiring back to back parabolic moves that have very minimal retracement(has never happened once in last 22 years). Would never claim it's impossible of course, just saying doesn't look good long term.
Well didn't necessarily expect it to happen tonight, but looks like they are starting to squeeze all the buyers that have been loading up, like we discussed.