Hi Guys ! I have created and enhanced all theG10 currencies Endogenous,Exogenous analysis and Cot reports Spreadsheets using the Anton Kreil Professional Forex Trading Masterclass (PFTM) method from ITPM . A strategy in which the core is macroeconomic analysis and statistical evaluation. And that has made these powerful institutional tools and methodologies accessible to retail traders too! recognizing and exploiting the fundamental macro trends in our favor and making great profits for months and months And now finally in the final version 3.0 ! These analysis I made are spreadsheets based on the hedge funds "Global Macro" strategy. Global macro strategy ,funds around predictions and projections of large-scale events on the country-wide, continental, and global scale, implementing opportunistic investment strategies to capitalize on macroeconomic and geopolitical trends. Global macro strategists make forecasts and analyze trends using quantitative mathematical and statistical methods to support macro models. In this case they are a perfect symbiosis of two currency fair value models: FEER(Fundamental Equilibrium Exchange Rate)and PPP(Purchasing Power Parity) built and improved week after week from over a year of hard work ,passion and a lot of study to perfect every little detail, increasing accuracy and incorporating parts of frameworks from other winning macro models Spreadsheets are a complete and self-sufficient strategy in all respects to generate macro ideas as large hedge funds and banks do, to which you can add your own technical analysis set-up for timing and the aid of the COT and you are immediately ready to trade on the smart money side ! which follow a rigorous process of overlapping analysis and objective classification of over twenty-two macro data (Leading and co-incident) for each currency. And with the use of statistical scorecards to make the systematic process as objective and impartial as possible, really helping in an incredible way also in the elimination of subjective interpretations of the market and emotionality in trades. It may seem very complex and articulate but I made it super simple and intuitive, automating the whole process from A to Z even for those unfamiliar with the strategy or any type of analysis methods on Excel. I brought it to a definitive version in which the only thing to do is add the latest data, and all the scoring is done in a totally automatic way thanks to numerous links between all the files all the data and their processing flow into two sheets . one for exo calculation and another in which the matrix with all the scores and the relative Long or Short bias of 50 Fx pair are made. along with other data to help us complete our successful trading idea creation process. This is an example with the UK Endo : https://cutt.ly/UK_Endogenous_Spreadsheet-Excel AUD/USD Exo: https://cutt.ly/AUD_USD_Exogenous_Spreadsheet-Excel Drive folder with my content: Feel Free to contact me for more explanations about the model or any need Mail :Russell.lloyd77@gmail.com
In war academies, they made a study on the best qualities of a leader. 2 main : lazy & intelligent. Because he will find the fastest way to solve the problem, with the least of resources. Nothing personal below. If the hedge funds are using, all of this crap above, no wonder they're underperforming. Over-complicating. (Especially for a retailers audience. And for sales pitch one should be a sponsor) timestamped
You have come up with an excellent issue on which I have thought a lot too. And it is really a Hamletic doubt not to be taken lightly. -the market is really that simple to interpret - the market is more complex than we can imagine They are two theories of thought that have solid foundations. With the advent of the quant, physicists, statisticians and mathematicians who have applied the most varied theories to financial markets. Everyone will have reformulated their considerations in this regard. I myself am haunted by this thought, that even having good statistical and econometric skills and really studying this branch in the financial markets and developed the model with excellent results and that in itself is not at all simple in the creation and development. I still think it's not complex enough anyway, and knowing so much I really know how many other really complex theories to apply are used for some models. And there's this anxiety that I feel telling me you have to dig deeper into complexity to compete. absolutely not true, because there is no direct linearity between complexity and profit. because there are really basic models and strategies that are phenomenal on the market. But the advent of machine learning and the fusion of all other computing sciences in finance is really raising the bar and if you don't adapt, you risk being left behind with evaluation methods without solid foundations.
"Spreadsheets are a complete and self-sufficient strategy in all respects to generate macro ideas as large hedge funds and banks do" I typed profitability of hedge funds into google and very quickly found the following passage: A study by Yale and NYU Stern economists suggested that during that six-year period, the average annual return for offshore hedge funds was 13.6%, whereas the average annual gain for the S&P 500 was 16.5%. End quote. I think hedge funds have to trade the way they do because they have vast sums of money under management, but small traders with small or relatively small accounts should be able to do better--but to do so, I think we have to use different methods that exploit our superior liquidity, not the methods of large traders that rely on diversification and macro-economic cycle forecasting because their huge positions in the market cannot exploit liquidity. Anton Kreil would no doubt respond that most retail traders do poorly in the markets, but my reply to that would be: don't do what "most retail traders" do either!
I absolutely agree that hedge funds and investment banks are struggling to beat the SP500, and you can see it here on almost all types of strategies and asset classes they are doing poorly https: //www.eurekahedge.com/Indices/IndexView/Mizuho/1/Eurekahedge-Asset-Weighted-Index-USD Beating the SP500 can be done by any retail trader and even a fairly beginner one. But I think you have a lot of confusion about some facts ... If the Hfunds don't beat the benchamark, it doesn't mean they can't. These institutions are slaves to their track record and consistent positive performance. Their high net worth investors demand positive balance sheets every year, and stability in growth. they prefer a stable 2% per annum than + 60% with the risk of having as much loss. Why does Jim Simons' fund continue to consistently perform best in the industry for nearly 20 years? because it is a fund closed to the public! where there are no demanding external investors, but only trade the funds of their members and associates. by doing so they can stick to their personal risk management rules and do nearly what they want with the capital, without having barriers and barriers on risk control behind every single transaction, and this without even considering the restrictions of the financial supervisory institutions.
But what I want to bring your attention to mainly is the fact that we shouldn't be interested in mirroring their performance, but having their edge, and bringing a real competitive advantage to the market by learning from them. because it really doesn't make sense to compete without it. How can you expect to win the Iron Man without the training and physical endurance of the other competitors! It doesn't even make sense to participate if you don't have the right preparation. In fact, I created the model following numerous empirical studies of econometrics and statistics that demonstrate its validity ,and having a macro and stat driven approach, systematic and objective is a real edge ! compared to a Technical Analysis idea generation only. Funds and banks have behind them strong academic backgrounds and skilled minds on their side absolutely not to be taken lightly, and they have all this power nowadays for a reason, certainly not by chance. Believe me that when they discover a fallacy or a profitable method on the market they have no qualms to use it until the point of inefficiency. an example was with the DOM, Order flow, Footprints and volume trading which was born as a retail strategy and 9 months later there was no bank that did not have a department that covered it. And this is not accidental, because it is an approach that brings an edge on the market and they don't let it slip away. and there will be a reason why they don't use the myriad of approaches used by retailers, because there is concrete and quantifiable data behind it that proves it. And don't just compare when RSI is oversold and sell when overbought. in fact I saw a track recently of a very simple strategy on SP500 that bought when RSI was overbought and as simple as it is it is very profitable! because statistically it goes up more often instead of going overbought and the numbers show it compared to common sense
Sometimes I go long when RSI is overbought, and sometimes I fade it. I have a filter (don't ask) that I use to determine how to interpret the RSI's OB/OS readings. Hedge funds have too much money, and they have to tailor their strategies to that fact. Small traders can exploit liquidity of the market in a way that big traders cannot. That is why I don't favor mimicking the big funds' techniques. Their ability to exploit liquidity--to move rapidly in and out of the market with a sum of money that is small relative to the market's size--is much more limited than it is for a trader with a much smaller account. Trying to use hedge fund tactics just has you going head to head against the "masters of the universe." I fully understand why hedge funds prefer inflexible mechanical strategies. I think discretion is superior, but it takes time, practice, and mistakes to learn, and it is easy to overuse. I still kick myself from time to time when I deviate from my rules only to realize later that I would have done better to be more mechanical. However, although there is always a temptation to overuse discretion, there are definitely times when it is safer to sit on my hands and wait, such as just before certain news releases. There are times when it is better to lower my profit target, or to stretch it. Sometimes market prices are cycling smoothly, and I can risk more money, and sometimes the movement is more irregular, requiring more caution. The individual trader with his own money and no nervous investors to think about can pay attention to these nuances and learn through trial and error.