https://www.lynalden.com/september-2024-newsletter/ ***Long read. ***Small section below. "My Tentative 5-Year Outlook -For U.S. stocks, I have a neutral-to-negative view on the major U.S. stock indices in inflation-adjusted terms. They’re starting from an expensive baseline, and with a high ratio of household investable assets already stuffed into them. However, I do think that among the universe of more cyclical and/or mid-sized stocks that make up smaller portions of the U.S. indices, there are plenty of reasonably-priced ones with better forward prospects. -For international stocks, I think the upcoming 2024 Fed interest rate cutting cycle is one of the first true windows for them to have a period of outperformance relative to U.S. stocks for a change. It doesn’t mean that they certainly will follow through with that, but my base case is for a meaningful asset rotation cycle to occur, with some of the underperforming international equity markets having a period of outperformance. At the very least, I would want some exposure to them in an overall portfolio, to account for that possibility. -For developed market government bonds, like the U.S. and elsewhere, I don’t have a positive long-term outlook in terms of maintaining purchasing power. A ten-year U.S. Treasury note currently yields about 3.7%, while money supply historically grows by an average of 7% per year, and $20 trillion in net Treasury debt is expected to hit the market over the next decade. So I think the long end of the curve is a useful trading sardine, but not something I want to have passive long exposure to. -A five-year inflation-protected Treasury note, however, pays about 1.7% above CPI, and I view that as a reasonable position for the defensive portion of a portfolio. T-bills are also useful for the defensive portion of a portfolio. They’re not my favorite assets, but there are worse assets out there than these. -Gold remains interesting for this five-year period, although it might be tactically overbought in the near-term. It has had a nice breakout in 2024, but is still relatively under-owned by most metrics, and should benefit from the U.S. rate cutting cycle. So I’m bullish as a base case. -Bitcoin has been highly correlated with global liquidity, and I expect that to continue. My five-year outlook on the asset is very bullish, but the volatility must be accounted for in position sizes for a given portfolio and its requirements."
Why do you post on this website? Why would we care what you think? I'd give her $100K to invest before I'd give you $10K to invest.
Sure if you don't want to be driving around in a (2008) Lambo! btw she uses Elliott wave so she should know better than thinking external factors affect stocks.
I could buy a few brand new Lambos but I'm not foolish enough to spend that much on a vehicle. Could buy a decent house in certain areas with that money. Plenty traders combine technicals with fundamentals.
Fundamentals? You aren't going to beat the market trying to use fundamentals with all the inside information being passed around, the AI, algos, HFT pouncing on any breaking news, teams of analysts dissecting earnings reports...the fundamentals are always baked into the price for a retail investor. Remember RK when he said "I think for now, were going to end the stream", "I think were going to end the stream now", "Let's send it". That's what the algos heard and triggered another halt. Time stamp link not working...start at 46:00