Lumber futures: backwardation exceeds late penalties on physical delivery?

Discussion in 'Commodity Futures' started by ScroogeMcDuck, Feb 3, 2021.

  1. $200/day * 22 business days/month / 110mbf = $40/mbf/month
    But may is $120 cheaper than march
    so you buy the may futures, short the march futures, pay 2 months of penalties and dropship it for a profit of $40/mbf lol.
    I don't see any clause that voids the transaction after you stall for that long.

    I went ahead and shorted a few contracts of march lumber and I'm hoping this gets arbed away before I cover.
     
  2. maxinger

    maxinger

    oh no. not such illiquid futures.

    you might end up being a sole trader.
     
    Last edited: Feb 3, 2021
  3. caroy

    caroy

    Happy to make a market on over the counter lumber options? My markets might be a little wide.
     
  4. bone

    bone

    Good luck.