I don’t want to say it but you know what I mean. I don’t want to wake up one morning between now and Election Day and find out that Kamala Harris has just been sworn in because … So, how to play this, assuming portfolio or span, with options? 200k portfolio that all diversified stocks. I assume a 3 percent risk of a 10 percent overnight plunge and a very very high vol spike.
Judging by his latest approval rating it probably wont even move the needle.LOL. Definately not a Black Swan event anyway,no where near the magnitude of march 2020.
this and 911 taught me to just be a day trader - less time in the market less risk - every night i am flat.
Be careful about presumptions or how you game this out in your mind. The market might very well rally. If Joe left the scene before or after the convention in August, Kamala does not automatically become the nominee. The vote for president and the vote for vice president are two separate votes by the delegates. Most likely the delegates would just pick someone better than Biden and everyone would be euphoric. Then the person they select as the presidential nominee gets to pick their choice for vp. Guess what? It ain't gonna be Kamala. Or if Joe gets the nomination and then is elected in November but left the scene before being sworn in in January then the electoral college electors are free to pick a replacement for Joe in the electoral college vote, which is, can't remember exactly, about the third week in December or something. Not saying the market would not get quirky before or the first couple days of digesting the news, but when the reality that Joe and Kamala are not at the head of the ticket sets in, the dems will be dancing in the streets while pretending to be grieving. So they would be happy, and the pubs would be happy thinking that it may just drive more votes over to Trump. That would be a lot of euphoria flying around. For consideration anyway. If Joe left the building after the inauguration and Kamala was next up, well then, yeh, it would be Jonestown all over again- but you asked/commented about "between now and election day." If Joe and Kamala put their coats on and walked out tomorrow, not gonna be many people jumping out of windows on wall street. Might be some confetti just for old times sake. Anyway, just to repeat what I said above, lots of people assume that if Joe dies or drops out that Kamala is automatically next up. Nope. Not for the 2024 race anyway. If Joe drops out, his delegates eventually get freed up to vote for whomever else they want. Kamala does not inherit them. And Kamal would not become VP again unless the new prez nominee picks her again and the delegates confirm that choice.
Kamala does become president if Biden goes away somehow between now and Inauguration Day. After that? Different risk management play.
Shorting vol after it happens, with a long enough tenor to include the election after it, seems like a reasonable bet.
Why would that surprise anyone? Even my little nephew thinks the dude is too old. So don't you think the market has already priced that in?