This is an argument I've made a number of times...and in fact very recently on multiple threads that we're at the beginning of a bubble, not the end of it. This is somewhat more bullish than men looking back to 1982 for a comparison point (I likened it as nearer the 1994 pivot into the tech bubble). There's a lot of fundamental points that back it up also: Demographics - the largest american generation in history, is also poised to be the most productive per-capita of any peoples anywhere ever, is just now beginning to have the disposable income that makes them drivers of the economy. (I know this point is debatable--and indeed disputed--but my point is still plausible). Pervasive changes to lifestyle over a generation - The way people communicate, communicate, produce, entertain themselves, and live has changed over the course of a generation. The last time this occurred was the early 20th century when railroads, radios, telegraphs / phones, urbanization, and refrigeration (A/C) proliferated. This is evidence of a consolidated market (look at the number of railroads, for example, that crumbled in the late 19th century) that can now spread its wings in a less competitive market. Market efficiency - This isn't anything that inherently drives growth, I just suspect that 'historic' lows in the VIX and relatively high (for now) P/E ratios are evidence of an ever more efficient marketplace. In political economic terms, this would be providing institutions for the lowering of transaction costs--manifested in lower spreads on the SPX, lower returns in investment (for now), etc... I'm bullish as hell right now for all the points above...to the extent that I'm curious if the next recession lows will be above or below the levels we're at now. I don't think it's unreasonable that the S&P will resemble the NASDAQ, and the NASDAQ resembling the DOW before this one gives up the ghost. And I'm sure some of you have taken this to it's logical conclusion that the end will be on par with 1929, but with many more participants with much more capital to much greater effect. Make money now while the gettin's good, so you have something to land on when it flies too close to the sun.
https://www.amazon.com/gp/aw/d/1118...C_SX236_SY340_FMwebp_QL65&keywords=super+boom Dow 38,000 by 2025.
So the s&p to 6500+ and Nasdaq to 23,000+ by the time everyone throws in the towel and takes profits....
I'm not saying it will happen or that anyone should get into the market under that presumption (Warren Buffet might disagree). But I do think it's a reasonable hypothesis. What I will say is that I'm buying stuff up right now like S&P at 5000 is on the horizon and 2000 is not. And if I'm wrong, I'll suck it up and keep buying at 2000.
New highs today only 108 as the market makes another historical close last week's new highs stood at 166 Less participating stocks gaining new highs as the market closes at historical highs....this could be somewhat of a red flag!!!
Wrong wrong wrong. Credit has already been cut off. Take the charts as you may, but this is what mom and pop see. They are always on the wrong side.