Needless to say, my Calls on Crude are going fabulous. I use USO to trade... I watch UCO, but you do not get the performance on the options to warrant the additional risk, volatility, ATR, etc... anyway, Crude hit $116 today briefly, USO hit $80 and held thru after hours. Russia/Ukraine crisis is pushing crude up, having cleared $100 this week. Anyone want to give a price target on Crude? and your basis for that? I am not sure if we can use an Technical Analysis here, since this is being driven by a "black swan" type event.
??? This is the third time I’ve been in this trade in the last five weeks. Waiting for a pull back from 116 to under 107 and hit it again.
140 in a couple weeks if Russia shuts off oil exports to US / Europe. Before you say Putin would have to be crazy to do that...well, have you seen the news over the past week? I dunno, not calling it, but I see the possibility for it to go a lot higher. Been selling 105 strike XOP puts for April. I think that will be the floor for a while due to horrible global energy policy that cannot be fixed anytime soon.
Crude will collapse and most will be stuck holding their long positions as it's happening believing its just a minor pullback. It won't be a minor pullback. Oil will collapse so fast you won't even have a chance to lock in your beautiful profits. You can only squeeze oil so high. Oil demand is not even what they make of it..... The day this Russia Ukraine situation is through Oil will fall an easy 25% ... . Gas is already above $4 near me and in some parts of the country $5 and probably $6 at those price gouging stations, it won't last long. High oil prices that run this fast always collapse. And if we do get to 130, 140 156 165 or even 188 and 200 it will only cause a world wide slow down. You can't have astronomical oil prices and a booming economy. Not going to happen.
They irony is everyone talking about Russian oil, when they don't seem to be able to find enough to even fuel their own woke red army right now.
Don't let the critics bother you; S2007S for example has a terrible track record forecasting/trading Oil it's all sour grapes for him. I made a really nice haul on Cdn energy stocks Friday kind of a delayed move they were all badly lagging recent WTI moves. I sold most of them by end of day which may be overkill but I'll rebuy the best ones on Monday depending on how things shake out. The swings during the week were a little strange so I just decided to take the profits and address it with a fresh mind next week. Earnings were massive on most they will go much higher this year again but could be some little speed bumps on the way up.
Oil and commodities is where there is a lot of monies to be made on still. I sold some long positions to lessen my risk and lock in gains. Also, believe, a short term pullback in oil and commodities can happen due to profit taking. Longer term, I am still bullish in oil and commodities. Ukraine supplying commodities to the US and Europe is at huge risk considering this war. The longer it drags, the harder it will be for Ukraine to continue its exports of commodities. Russia would also, like to hit back at the US and Europe sanctions by spiking oil and commodities prices where they are able to. What they can easily do is destroy the infrastructure, factories, mines, etc. Also, Russia supplies a lot of commodities to the world. When the war ends, Russian exports of commodities will continue. In that scenario, Russia will also, recover economically.
It is a catch 22 with US and Europe sanctioning Russian oil and gas. Here is an article on why the US and Europe are refusing to sanction Russia's oil and gas. They need it so much. https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/...e-in-stranglehold-bill-browder-185738259.html