http://finance.yahoo.com/news/kellogg-buy-solid-q4-cereal-200008084.html http://www.msn.com/en-us/money/topstories/play-defense-and-buy-kellogg-ahead-of-earnings/ar-BBplkCc http://www.msn.com/en-us/money/stockdetails/fi-126.1.K.NYS http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=K+Key+Statistics http://www.msn.com/en-us/money/stockdetails/financials/fi-126.1.K.NYS http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=K+Interactive#{"range":"5y","allowChartStacking":true} Trade: With K at 75.79 Jan '17 55/50 bull put spread for a net credit of $40 Yield = 40/460 = 8.7% in 336 days or 9.4% annualized Prob = 94.8% Expectation = .95(40) - .02(460) - .03(230) = 38 - 9.2 - 6.9 = 22 Price................ Profit / Loss........... ROM % 40.00................... (460.00).............. -91.30% 45.00................... (460.00).............. -91.30% 50.00................... (460.00).............. -91.30% 54.60........................ 0.00.................. 0.00% 55.00...................... 40.00.................. 8.70% 60.00...................... 40.00.................. 8.70% 70.00...................... 40.00.................. 8.70% 80.00...................... 40.00.................. 8.70% 90.00...................... 40.00.................. 8.70% 30 year treasuries are yielding 2.6% https://www.treasury.gov/resource-c...interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=yield