It's supply damnit!

Discussion in 'Chit Chat' started by jonbig04, Jun 30, 2008.

  1. Its not specs, we know that. and its not JUST inflation.

    Sure demand is growing, but not as fast as oil prices are. Think about it, has demand grown WORLDWIDE by 40% in the past year? I don’t think so, yet the price of oil has. Also demand is easy to measure. We can see exactly how many barrels are going into foreign countries and at what rate. If there were some crazy demand spike, we would know about it. I think demand would be responsible more a slow creeping, but inexorable rise in oil prices, but not one at the velocity we’ve witnessed lately.

    Is there any hard evidence to support that its supply? Nope, but I that’s part of the reason why I think supply is the issue. Its nearly impossible to tell how much is 20,000 feet underground at any point, and even if it wasn’t impossible do you think countries like Saudi Arabia are going to tell us what they really have left? We don’t even know how much oil we have, and even of we did know we couldn’t drill it because it might distress some obscure gnat in Alaska. I think that there are supply issues in the Middle East that we simply don’t know about. The futures market doesn’t lie and it is incredibly efficient at pricing commodities, that’s why it’s been around forever. It’s the only piece of the puzzle that’s unaccounted for and unclear. So it makes sense that if there were a supply problem we would be left scratching our heads like we are today.. If there was a supply issue and we did know about it, maybe that’s part if the reason for our military presence in the middle east, if that’s the case then I’m all for the war so you would be too, but that’s for another day.