It's here The U.S. is officially in a recession now, having peaked in February. The longest economic expansion in American history began in June 2009 and lasted 128 months—the previous record, of 120 months, took place between March 1991 and March 2001. The National Bureau of Economic Research: "The unprecedented magnitude of the decline in employment and production, and its broad reach across the entire economy, warrants the designation of this episode [of the last few months] as a recession, even if it turns out to be briefer than earlier contractions." Fortune
What recession?? Haaa. Markets are trading like its 2019 and 2018 and 2017 and 2016 20q5 2014 2013 2012 like the bull market never ended. All belp.from the fed friends.... Ohhhhh and thats right the economy and stock market are two totally different things. Doesn't matter what the economy does, depression, recession, stagflation, inflation, anything goes and yet the stock market rises to infinity.... And wait a dang second....according to all the smarties and economists there wasn't one even predicting a recession in 2020 so how could this be....
This is going to be the most interesting 2H of a calendar year in recent history when it comes to the market. During that time we will most likely see a surge in cases, possibly getting a Biden for President (And if Biden does win in Nov, I do believe Trump will sabotage the entire economy before January 2021 somehow), a COVID vaccine most likely by X-Masish, Q2 earnings in July that should be dismal for many companies, etc. Just seems a confluence of opposing market forces will be colliding in 2H 2020, and I would think our lowly VIX in the mid 20s would be a bargain to go long in for the end of the year.
I normally feel I make good money decisions but I have missed most of this rally and it has made me feel pretty stupid in hindsight. At the end of February I cut all longs and raised cash. Real cash. I already was stocked up on food and TP so took care of family and extended family preparations. I have a few virus vulnerable family to protect. I truly was getting ready for economic crash, civil unrest and war. I was late to add longs... didn't add any until April and only sparingly in trades. I'm now neutral to bearish on delta with a good theta burn. I wish I had profits from nailing the bottom but I don't. I did preserve capital and did not take much loss on the drop but I have not been picking direction well at all. I honestly gave up picking direction and currently just managing a negative to neutral delta while burning theta. Still looking for a sign.