Is this TA?

A discussion in another thread provoked to me to think about whether all use of charts is TA. Lets take the example attached. The chart shows a H1 candlestick chart of crude oil.

My hypothesis is that price will very likely at some point return to the blue line. The reason for this is not based on a historical pattern or indicators etc. My reasoning is that during the red bar traders large enough to stop and reverse price got short looking for lower prices. As you can see from the price action since the red bar oil initially went lower and then rallied to put those that didn't bank underwater. I believe that the traders who can move price will likely now push the price down to the blue line to allow them to buy and net out the position. In the process they will likely bank some profit from selling higher up.

Is this sort of analysis TA?

 

Is all this going on inside your head?

 

i mean couldn't you look at it like an upside down head a shoulders. with a higher low... If you stare at it for a while i start to see the pyrenees

 

more of a inverse cup and handle lol

 

My hypothesis is that price will come down even further than the blue line to squeeze all the people who bought near the lows out of their profits.

Everyone is rushing from one side of the boat to the other trying to pick up the cash.

Edit: I like your hypothesis too though

 

Yes, it definitely is TA. But not Technical Analysis. It's just Thinking About what might happen next.

 

To me, yes. I'd say that's technical analysis

 

It does not matter what kind'uv analysis you make.

If you're using a chart to make a trade decision or the price action on that chart has any kind'uv impact (tiny or big) on a trade decision/trade analysis...you're using technical analysis. Simply, if you're using that chart to describe, illustrate what the price action is doing regardless if you're trading or not trading that price action...you're using technical analysis.

The key word in TA is the analysis. Therefore, you don't need to be trading something to qualify as someone using TA. In contrast, you just need to be someone using a chart to make an analysis about the price action on the chart.

There's a ton of closet (hidden) TA users at Elitetrader.com that fit the above description while bashing TA because they believe they are not using TA.

Lets put it this way, if you don't need that chart or didn't use the chart...you're not using TA.

1) Using TA to describe the price action
2) Using TA to make a trade decision

Both of the above are "using TA". Yes, all chart use is using technical analysis.

The real debate is about those traders that only use DOM, bid/ask, time/sales screens but no charts. Many believes these types of traders are not using technical analysis.

 

It all goes back to what u use it for. Ta is descriptive, ta is not predictive.

Using TA to describe is the correct use , using TA to predict either the next moves or a winning percentage of a series of trades/moves is fatally flawed thinking.

DOM and bid ask occur BEFORE price is created therefore it makes sense to use. This action is the cause of the effect called price.

Studying the Effect to determine future Effect is lacking even the most basic proper logic.

surf

 

It doesn't matter what someone is "using" TA for. The fact remains, they are using TA. Seems kind'uv ridiculous to see someone say they do not use TA but they only use a chart to describe the price action on the chart. :eek:

Simply, you do not need to put on a trade to qualify as someone using TA. You just need to open a chart and then use the info on that chart to make an analysis.