I cannot figure this out. I know how the PnL graph looks, but is the trade long volatility or short volatility. I am trying to figure out if it is a good trade to have, going into earnings.
Victor, I think the easiest way to determine whether a certain strategy is long or short volatility is to see how the value of the strategy changes when volatility changes. A butterfly has options that are both purchased and sold, and the problem is that at certain prices the butterfly may be short volatility and at other prices it may be long. For example, if you take a 1-year butterfly created under a volatility of 30%, and then volatility drops to 5%, you can see that at certain prices you will be profitable and at others you will make a loss: You can also look at the vega of a butterfly and you will see that it is positive / negative depending on the price. So the bottom line is that you cannot say for sure where a butterfly is long or short - the answer is "it depends".