Concept... If you can buy something SUPER CHEAP... like Russian ETFs @ 98% discount... it's like "buying an option with no expiration date". Either things eventually get better... no time limit... and the issue rebounds, or it goes to zero. But you're not risking all that much on the play. I cite an example from years ago. MiniScribe was a HDD maker off-shoot from IBM. It struggled and traded down to 5/32. But a couple of years later it traded at $80.... possibly that kind of play.
Russia has made a promise to continue forward with paying foreigners for holding their bonds. That gamble worked out great for junk-bond holders trying to capitalize off the high yields. Just remember, Russia will only pay in rubles though.
Wait till the war ends. US financial sector heavily invested in the Russian sector. They will claw back some of those losses once, the war ends. Keep your powder dry. Opportunities are everywhere, if you open your eyes. Shorted airline stocks with put options last Friday and doing nicely today. High aviation fuel, longer route to fly around Russia, wasting more aviation fuel, high inflation emptying US consumer wallets, very expensive plane tickets (economy). Cost of plane tickets will go thru the roof, but, will consumers pay or stay home? US consumers are stressed out with the prices of practically, everything going to the roof.
This is a wake-up call for China. It holds mountain of US treasuries as reserve. I think China wants to buy more gold and unwind the treasury holdings. This is a good time to sell. I do not think US has the capability to crush the gold price.
First, I think this whole situation has exposed a huge risk related to ETFs: The fund can sell of the underlying at firesale prices due to things like removal from an index, de-listing etc. I would not make this play inside an etf because it just adds risk. The bigger question where can you even buy these Russian assets as a little guy. lukoy is the deal of a lifetime right now, but where can you buy it?
Will have to be very light jumbo jets which consume little aviation fuel. That is a huge challenge in itself. Most jetliners now are fuel efficient. Inflation from oil will drive up the costs of labor, maintenance, making it hard for US airlines to turn a profit. More likely, the project to move people from one place to another (Hyperloop), at great speed might make more economic sense. That, of course hurts the airlines too. Another competitor on the horizon.