I've been learning trading forex for about a year now and i've tried different Indicators and strategies and it seems that none of it is working in a long term. I recently stumbled upon a video which changed my mind of how i think that forex markets work. We all probably know the structure break and retest strategy which works on some occasions. Video showed that if you place lines in random places, eventually all of them will become support and resistance lines. I did not believe it myself until i tried it. Is forex market made to take retail investors money ? Just when you think that you know where the market will move and place the trade, it will hit your buy stop and move the price to the opposite direction. What strategies work for you knowing that market is built this way? How to adapt to it?
Spot forex is notoriously noisy. You need to know what drives currencies in the first place and how exchange rates are set. Then, you need to analyze your currency pair for what’s driving it, develop a view, and then make a trade. Generally speaking, exchange rates should be a series of mean reversion within a band around interest rate, policy expectations, and economic performance differentials. Little bit of positioning too around hedgers, speculators, and currency demand, but I’d start with the above. “A Foreign Exchange Primer” by Shani Shamah is a good starting point. From there i would move on to “FX trader school”.
It is not fluke. Someone loses, there must be someone winning. Most of people consistently lose, so there are some people consistently winning
Not necessarily. You might have a losing strategy. Revert it by doing the opposite and you might lose again.
I started with forex before moving to the ES. Basically you have to understand the above stated but also money flows for different time zones too. Let's say you are vullish for European equity markets and for their export figures this month too... What time and date of the month do you think USD will be weak towards the EUR? When will it change if it dies at all... Catalyst news that could do that sheduled? You see - FX is not a short term game. Succesfull FX traders have to do way more work then equity and others have to do. But on the other hand it is a slow market. Stocks could hold a resistance line for days, you are sure it will sink and then CEO makes a press release.. you will not even see the ASK until it is 2-X percent higher.
You might find it useful to reflect on the forex markets not in terms of up and and down, bullish and bearish, but in terms of with-trend and counter-trend. We've all noted that the major US stock index, the Dow, moves predominantly upwards. But it is not the upwards direction that is key, it is the respect it shows to its own trend. Which is of course upwards but that's not the point in forex. If you regard forex markets as either with-trend or counter-trend you will see they are just as "trendish" as the Dow. Maybe this will help.
That is PRECISELY what these scumbag "analysts" on Wall Street and elsewhere want you to believe: technical analysis and chart reading do not work, so give us your money now and WE the "experts" will do the "analysis" and the "homework" for you, because WE, once again, know better than you. Never mind that we, the "experts", cannot even beat the S&P 500 in the long run, just hand us your freaking money and shut the hell up. After all, we the "experts" know the market from the inside out, so don't try to manage your own trading account with your own trading rules and your own risk-management parameters, just give us your freaking money so we can get rich while pretending to "help" you. Believe it or not, tons of traders still fall for that trap : they just hand over their money to these scam artists who cannot even beat buy and hold. And that's why they keep repeating over and over again that technical analysis techniques do not work. They want you to believe that, of course, so that you can give them your money. Because think about it : if you can manage your own trading account with simple trading rules and sound money management principles, they will go out of business almost overnight.
Funny how totally meaningless/childish threads get 3 000 responses in 5 minutes. But the minute you talk against the "system" you get zero reaction. Whatever, this was my last post in this forum anyway (health issues), bye all and happy trading.
Yes it is. Its a simple concept and very effective at taking people's money. When we BUY or SELL, the counter party in that transaction is a big bank or market maker and they don't want to lose so they will drive the market up and down in order to clean up our positions and take our money. They don't necessarily target our individual positions, because they would not even see them but they want to clear their books from all the orders they are holding so they drive price against one side and then against the other side. Its a rinse and repeat process...