Is Deepseek a Black Swan event?

Discussion in 'Artificial Intelligence' started by zdreg, Jan 28, 2025.

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Is Deepseek a Black Swan event?

  1. Yes

    4 vote(s)
    22.2%
  2. No

    13 vote(s)
    72.2%
  3. Maybe

    1 vote(s)
    5.6%
  1. zdreg

    zdreg

    Does it fit the definition of a Black Swan event?
     
  2. maxinger

    maxinger

    It is a Sputnik and colored swan event
    provided China can hide its coding secrets.

    For China, it is a white swan event.
    For the US, it is a black swan event.
     
    Qeo17 likes this.
  3. Pekelo

    Pekelo

    What I don't get is that the program came out a week ago, yet the fall came a week later.

    Why did it take a full week for the market to react?
     
    gwb-trading likes this.
  4. zdreg

    zdreg

    On November 29, 2023, DeepSeek released the DeepSeek LLM series of models, with 7B and 67B parameters in both Base and Chat forms (no Instruct was released).
    Release history · ‎DeepSeek LLM · ‎V2 ·
     
  5. maxinger

    maxinger

    Trump's team (and other US big tech names) didn't have a good intelligence in China;
    they didn't see it coming.
     
  6. Max mentioned yesterday that the US AI direction was hardware. And I think this happened so we ''could control the best hardware'' and keep it for Just US and European usage. There had been many many orders from the president to limit and then stop all top level chips to be sold to china. And also..building massive data centers would put other ''non friendly' countries out of reach financially.

    This completely ignored the software side of development. I am also not entirely sure that TSM and ASML completely stopped selling to china..as they are a huge customer.

    Is it a Black Swan event...seems right now that it very well could be
     
    Last edited: Jan 28, 2025
  7. ktm

    ktm

    Is it a black swan event?

    LOL. You guys haven't been in the market that long, have you?
     
  8. Pekelo

    Pekelo

    My question stands even more so. Why did the government get eggs on its face announcing that BS 500 Billion Stargate investment when there was already a cheapo Chinese version out there?
     
  9. Pekelo

    Pekelo

    That nicely backfired. They had stored chips and they were forced to use them the most efficiently.
     
  10. TheDawn

    TheDawn

    What's Deepseek? LOL
     
    #10     Jan 28, 2025