is 23 out of 26 up days a Black Swan

best 26 day period in 70+ years for the dow 30. just out of curiosity. what isn't a black swan. what are the odds of you even being born?

 

By my reckoning such an event will occur on average once every 25000 days by chance.

There have been about 18,000 trading days in the last 70 years.

Therefore this is not a black swan.

 

100%




here's a piece from VN you <b>may</b> find interesting.

http://www.dailyspeculations.com/wordpress/?p=1455




surf

 

surf, where do you find all this stuff?

Can I borrow your outline?

 

im happy you like it.

 

Not a black swan, there are many examples showing that bell curve analysis means nada in market extremes and follow power laws. see Mandelbrot cotton paper. This may be pure mania, but who is to say the dow won't close up every day this year just cause it never happened before? Statistics don't predict the future, Better example may be the rise of electronic trading, global correlation, technological advances, etc. It is interesting that Taleb mentions the rise of Google as a black swan.

 

from black swan glossary:


Mandelbrotian Gray Swan: Black Swans that we can somewhat take into account –earthquakes, blockbuster books, stock market crashes – except that it is not possible to completely figure out their properties and produce precise calculations.