I am sure this has been discussed.... but does anyone attempt to trade IPO's on the day of issue... we had some huge ones this week,, WTF, NMAx, CRWV..... of course wome went down as well..
Just too volatile and unpredictable for my blood. YOLO day traders love 'em because of the volatility. NMAX today was indeed a good example.
At a portfolio level the volatility isn’t an issue if you only buy 1 share but the unpredictability …
IPOs are a complete crapshoot to attempt to day trade. There's not much beyond your control and understanding other than to ride waves and trends, but that alone is rather just dumb and basic in a hurricane IPO day trading is nothing but gambling for the amateur. We all essentially are just gambling, but there's definitely much more intelligible ways to do it, approach it, understand it, digest it Unless you're talking about investing in it or swing trading the stock, but that's another ball game. A boring game I'm not into. The thrill is the kill. Surviving the game
yeah... I just downlanded the data for 2025 and 2024,,, for 2025 it is only a 48% win rate,,, and for 2024 the grand total is negative.... not worth it... no strategy, just a gamble....
Since there were so many IPOs/SPACs during the pandemic I experimented with buying any issue that was up 20% or more on its first day. That seemed to be the threshold to determine demand. I think it still works pretty good. NMAX & WTF fit that bill pretty well.
I know predictability is a relative term when talking about stock price movement,all stocks have a fairly high level of unpredictabilty, but IPOs are on a whole nuther level. No thank you Por Favor.
If you do little bit of filtering and just take the first quote on exchange going long and sell at the end of day, you could get a Sharpe 2 with this daytrading on first day IPO strategy. It only works on the first day because the banks are looking for a good start on any IPO. I made a backtest of this some years ago, but it should be a working strategy. And no I cannot tell you my exact filter(s) I had as I do not remember on that anymore. But with intraday only you should get some leverage on stocks too.