Investor optimism highest since 2000: Wells Fargo/Gallup Index Investor optimism is at a 16-year high, driven by positive feelings about economic growth, unemployment and inflation, according to the results of the latest Wells Fargo/Gallup Investor and Retirement study. The study's optimism index now stands at 126, close to the high of 130 during the dot-com boom in November 2000, according to a released statement about the study. (Investment News)
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/market-crash-concerns-high-ahead-of-healthcare-vote-150830002.html According to Yale’s latest Crash Confidence Index, concern about a market crash within the next six months is at its highest level in four years (the low reading below means investors think the odds of a crash are more likely).
Not a surprise. However, as it's been said, "when the cab driver gives you market commentary or stock picks, it's time to get out." Lots of traders who "confuse brains for a bull market". Frankly, it doesn't matter, at the end of the day it's all about knowledge, and more importantly discipline. I work with traders who have tons of knowledge, and little discipline, and some have little knowledge and enormous discipline. My "initial" bet is on discipline "all day". However, it's quite sad how so many new folk Google'd "how to buy stocks". Tragic!
History dictates U.S. stock market returns will be roughly flat this year. With the Fed and presidential cycle aligning I suspect performance will be closer to -5%. Now is a good time to rebalance any overweight domestic positions.
It would be interesting to overlay it with the S&P index. I won't be surprised if it shows a low correlation with the actual market performance. ( By looking at the chart for 2007,2008 and beginning of 2009 the low reading indicating low probability of crash would make more sense)