Interesting bitcoin-related ETF proposals

Discussion in 'Crypto Assets' started by johnarb, Dec 28, 2024.

  1. johnarb

    johnarb

    If these ETF proposals pass, they can effectively utilize bitcoin as a unit of account and as a store of value in the US Financial system

    Money is Unit of Account, Store of Value, and a Medium of Exchange

    What is bitcoin's use-case? See all of the above

    Unit of Account:




    Store of Value (Treasury Asset 1000+ bitcoin):





    Store of Value (debt-issuance to buy bitcoin for Treasury Asset):



     
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  2. nitrene

    nitrene

    Looks like retail can finally buy some of those MSTR convertibles without being UHNW or an institution.

    The Bitwise ETF looks promising. Its not easy to buy shares of Metaplanet. The ADR is extremely illiquid. I did buy some from my IB account but you have convert part of your portfolio to Yen in order to buy it & the Yen is in collapse mode.
     
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  3. johnarb

    johnarb

    The USD is a wrecking ball, which is why bitcoin hit ath against other fiat currencies earlier than USD, i.e. Euro

    We only have to look to the US neighbor to the north triple debasement CAD, value destruction against goods & services, value destruction CAD vs global reserve currency USD, and value destruction against bitcoin

    Which is why the Proshares S&P 500, Nasdaq and Gold etf's denominated in btc is interesting as everything is going to 0 when priced in bitcoin, i.e. median house price was 700 btc 10 years ago, 60 btc 5 years ago, today only 4 btc

    It's also interesting as a possible way to smooth out the volatility of bitcoin at times, especially during the crypto bear market and if for example the Nasdaq is on an uptrend counter-balance

    https://www.pricedinbitcoin21.com/landing



    upload_2024-12-29_1-54-15.png


     
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  4. Pekelo

    Pekelo

    1. What is a unit of account?

    2. You can say those things about a hundred other cryptos... (most cryptos had ATHs recently and they are also "store of value") aka nothing unique about BTC
     
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  5. jbusse

    jbusse

    No. According to data from CoinKickoff, between 2013 and 2022, at least 2,383 cryptocurrencies have "failed" meaning their value essentially went to zero, with many of these being abandoned projects with no trading volume or identified as scams; this represents a significant portion of the total number of cryptocurrencies created during that period.
     
    johnarb likes this.
  6. The problem with these newer ETFs, particularly those that give retail the same arbitrage opportunity that selected institutions have been getting from the convertible notes, is that once everyone can arbitrage, the arbitrage collapses.

    I don't think this can end well?

    I do believe 2025 will be the year I need to follow Buffett into cash holdings. I'll be buying bonds for sure, just not the convertible-notes.
     
    orbit23 likes this.
  7. johnarb

    johnarb

    1. measurement of value, instead of using USD, bitcoin will be used as the unit measurement

    2. Liquidity, liquidity, and more liquidity. Bitcoin trades 24/7/365, 10's of billions of $ daily trading volume, billions of $ worth on the bitcoin spot etf's, another billion of $ on spot etf options, add billions of $ on the CME futures, add 10's of billions of $ on the perpetual futures, worldwide exchanges, on-chain transactions over $36 Trillion worth last year, more than Visa and Mastercard transactions combined, you simply cannot compare that to any other altcoin and even surpasses gold, if you're still using gold as store of value, better switch asap
     
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  8. NoahA

    NoahA

    1. This means that things can and will be priced in bitcoin, or rather, satoshis. People often bring up gold, and they say that when priced in gold, real estate is mostly staying the same price in many markets. This is good because it means that gold is helping you maintain purchasing power. But when priced in Bitcoin, real estate keeps getting cheaper. Or rather, exchange bitcoin for real estate is a very bad idea at this point in time.

    2. You are right. Anything can be used as a store of value, and if enough people adopt it, a method of exchange. There is no universal rule that says Bitcoin has to be the future of the monetary system, and any coin today, or some other coin in the future, can take on this role, or none of them will.

    So just to put it out there, I don't ever want to sound like I know the future. But when I look at everything that is wrong with the current system, and everything that needs to be done to fix it, and the fact that nobody will ever agree on anything, and the fact that people in power cannot be trusted, and the fact that the current money system is responsible for why everything is a mess, then its pretty clear what the solution is.

    A system that isn't based on trust, a system that nobody can control, a system that isn't infinitely inflationary, a system with strict rules, etc, this is what I think wins out in the end. Now tell, of all the current offerings, which monetary solution has all of these properties? The fact that Bitcoin isn't tangible, and the fact that its useless for doing anything other than exchanging value is I think one of its strongest features.

    Of all the coins that you're worried about, only Bitcoin checks off all the boxes. The people hating on Bitcoin are fighting a losing battle, or still in the dark about its possibilities. It really is only a matter of time until someone breaks down and realizes that if you can't fight the adoption, you might as well join it. The only people who should be fighting it are the top 1%. Everyone else will benefit. You only fight it if you are lucky enough to get all the sweet fiat benefits, but this is hardly any of us.
     
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  9. NoahA

    NoahA

    This is the perfect thread for me to discuss another George Gammon video I watched. This was with Brent Johnson, the expert on USD. He outlines so clearly why USD isn't going to die. And I think this is also the going thesis of many bitcoiners now. In fact, USD is going to be saved by stablecoins because USDT is going to be an even bigger massive player in the US Treasury market.

    Anyway, while watching this video, it was interesting how many times they finish a thought and say "under the current system." Everything they talk about they sound completely right about, and yet, they are careful to always say based on how it works right now. Its almost like they understand that this is exactly how it works, until one day, it doesn't. Who wants to be on the other side of this when the change actually happens? Its absolutely moronic not to have 5% of your net worth in Bitcoin at this point. If it collapses, losing 5% is nothing, but when the current system collapses, that 5% will upgrade your lifestyle in the new system.

     
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  10. Pekelo

    Pekelo

    1. I guess in theory. In practice BTC (or any crypto) will be always measured in dollars or Euros, so it is just an extra step.* Not to mention the valuation of BTC is very impractical, who the hell wants to remember that a cup of coffee is 0.00045?
    (Just a siderant, but BTC for usability should be around 10 bucks and 210 billion coins. Or 2.1 trillion coins around 1 dollar, same difference.)

    2. Liquidity argument is BS. If tomorrow everyone switches to BSV or BCH you get the exact same liquidity and better usability.

    * Here is a thought experiment for crypto fans. Let's put 1000 people on an island with a completely newly made coin, let's say IC, for Island Coin. Let's say 100K coins, so each islander gets 100 coins in the beginning. Let them leave there for a year, making products, food and interact with each other and exchange products and services among themselves. No outside influence whatsoever.

    In this experience, the value of the IC will depend completely on the local island needs. Since it was never used or traded in the real world, there is no comparison. After 1 year we will take a look how their economy is working and what value the IC reached. I would say 1 IC is worth at least 5 bananas... :)

    The point of this experience is that this is the only way truly establish a currency's value, based on actual needs and not based on greed and hoarding.
     
    Last edited: Dec 29, 2024
    #10     Dec 29, 2024