Nvda IPO Jan. 22, 1999 at just $12 per share. Intel joined the dow in November 1999 Very interesting fact that the year Intel was added to the dow nvda went public, just so happens 25 yrs later Intel is being taken out and nvda placed in. What's really wild is that Intel was the most bad ass tech chip company in the world in 1999, people couldn't get enough of their new wave advanced chips and stock as the dot com bubble was forming and people were piling into anything tech related. I mean Intel was the absolute king of the world with their chips in nearly every computer being sold as the coming age of the internet just started. And look at Intel today, under performing for years while the markets and other tech leaders have moved only higher. But look at what they have done, adding Nvda to the dow...I would say nearly all of their gigantic growth is behind them in stock price meaning nvda WILL NOT return the same returns moving into the next 5 10 15 20 years as it the last 5 10 15 and 20 years. You are not going to see nvda return thousands of percent to investors anytime soon, those days are over, simple returns will be more like it but nothing like the last 5 years where nvda has returned over 2500% to investors..... Even the guys who voted in nvda to the dow are feeling fomo too...but they are feeling fomo way way too late. Should have had better hindsight to have taken some risk and added nvda years ago but nope let's add nvda to the dow after a whopping gigantic jump in the stock the last 5 years. An investor who bought $1,000 worth of NVIDIA stock at the IPO in 1999 would have $3,590,512 today, roughly 3,591 times their original investment - a 37.01% compound annual growth rate over 26 years. The all-time high NVIDIA stock
Nvidia is only 2.5% of the dow. If it doubles or halves over the next few years, it won't make much difference to the DOW.
Prior to the split it would have been an extreme dow mover at a 500+ stock price. We know it would have been impossible for nvda to be in the dow back in 1999 since it had just went public, but just imagine if it was added in around 2010 or so ...
not many companies out there have the NVDA's profile: -EPS past 5 years: 48% -Sales past 5 years: 46% -Low debt -leader in the new space (AI cycles have just started) -NVDA has other good profitable businesses
I think the hardware cycle for AI is ending pretty soon. Maybe it goes on for a couple more years but ultimately it is software that is useful for regular people. I think CRM , another DJ30 company, probably stands to gain along with ServiceNow, Worday, Adobe, etc.. Palantir is already there for the military side. If you look at when Intel was added it actually didn't do much since 1999 & it really collapsed after the pandemic. In reality their incrementalism approach to hardware & the rise of Ryzen & EPYC CPUs by AMD doomed them. The most amazing collapse for Intel was in workstation hardware. They went from a near monopoly to basically zero. The AMD Threadrippers completely destroyed anything Intel created. I bet like when the Dow Jones Committee booted Exxon, Intel (and Dow Chemical) is a buy here and has bottomed. S&P 500 is also a momentum fund. They added Moderna & Supermicro at the very top. They are both one trick ponies.
Better hope the top 5 spending billions a year on nvda chips don't slow that spending or nvda is going to plummet 50% ...