French trader bet $28 million on Trump win with 4 Polymarket accounts Four accounts that have recently built a massive pro-Trump position on the political betting market Polymarket are all controlled by one person, Polymarket confirmed. The trader is a French national with “extensive trading experience and a financial services background,” the company said. Polymarket is currently banned for U.S. traders, but Kalshi and Interactive Brokers have launched a slew of political betting contracts A stark shift toward former President Donald Trump on the political gambling platform Polymarket this month stoked scrutiny about four accounts that have collectively spent over $28 million betting on the Republican nominee to win the 2024 presidential election. Polymarket on Thursday confirmed what a number of experts have suspected: All four accounts are controlled by a single trader. A company spokesperson in a statement to CNBC described the whale as a French national with “extensive trading experience and a financial services background.” The statement said the trader’s accounts were funded from a “well-known centralized crypto exchange,” which other outlets have identified as the U.S.-based exchange Kraken. The company insisted that it has found no evidence that the trader is trying to juice Trump’s odds on the political betting market. An investigation involving third-party experts “to date has not identified any information to suggest that this user manipulated, or attempted to manipulate, the market,” Polymarket said. The New York Times, which reported Polymarket’s statement earlier Thursday morning, said the company worked with the investigations firm Nardello & Company. The scrutiny on the Polymarket trades comes as political betting markets have taken on a much more prominent role in the 2024 election cycle. Trump’s supporters have touted Polymarket’s widening odds gap with Democratic nominee Vice President Kamala Harris as evidence that Trump’s support is growing — even though the shift diverges from most national polls, which show a neck-and-neck race, well within the margin of error. Elon Musk, the Tesla and SpaceX CEO and one of the biggest financial backers of Trump’s White House bid, asserted on X, the social media platform he owns, that the betting markets are “more accurate than polls, as actual money is on the line.” Polymarket in Thursday’s statement emphasized that “prediction markets are not opinion polls—they measure the likelihood of an event occurring rather than the percentage of people who intend to take an action such as, in this case, voting on Election Day.” “Unfortunately, this fundamental misunderstanding is responsible for much of the misinformation about Polymarket and other prediction market platforms,” the company said. As of Thursday morning, the accounts’ total position on the presidential election bet was valued at about $28.6 million, according to Polymarket data. The four accounts — Fredi9999, Theo4, PrincessCaro and Michie — are among the top five holders on the pro-Trump side of Polymarket’s bet on who will win the race for the White House. The trader’s accounts have also bet over $7 million that Trump will win the popular vote over Harris. Odds and gambling platforms do not use methodologies used by traditional political polling, and therefore are not substitutes for political polls. The Polymarket spokesperson said it believes “that this individual is taking a directional position based on personal views of the election.” But the person nevertheless “has agreed not to open further accounts without notice.” Polymarket is currently banned for U.S. traders, following a 2022 settlement with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. But another betting platform, Kalshi, posted new presidential election contracts after a favorable ruling in a federal appeals court in Washington, D.C. Interactive Brokers has also launched a slew of political betting contracts. The CFTC is challenging Kalshi’s right to host those bets.
Thos country has become nothing but a country of gambling degenerates... With that being said there is going to be even more of these types of gambling sites popping up over the next few years....im sure even online trading brokers like Robinhood, schwab and others will be cashing in on this....
WHY is it insider trading? Everybody knows Trump is going to win the election. LOL That's not some secret insider knowledge. LOL Even the dumbest and the leftiest liberals have abandoned Kamala. Everybody can see she's nothing but an incompetent fake who's got nothing to offer. And btw insider trading is not gambling. You have no idea what's insider trading. LOL
Right now the 7 million dollar wager on the popular vote if they are right will pay them out 7 million. Right now 39% chance of Trump winning popular vote!
I heard if he wins he is doing these 3 things 1. Eliminating income tax 2. Credit aprs capped at 10% 3. No taxes paid on overtime Yeppppppp Politicians never lie.
I can see him eliminate taxes on overtime. That tax is freaking ridiculous; it's a tax on tax punishing people who want to work more. LOL But he's not really eliminating the income tax though. He is only replacing it with increased tariffs so even though you are not paying out a part of your income anymore, you are paying more to buy goods if it came from another country, so a reduction in spending power, same thing. At the end, you get less in your pocket. One thing what he should be doing though, is to stop the bailouts and the subsidies of the agricultural industry. That's a HUGE drain on the tax revenue. It's about time that the agricultural industry stands on its own and be able to support itself for a change instead of relying on the government for handouts. And it's really easy to do. All they have to do is to restrict output, produce less because there is only so much that people can eat, over-producing actually makes the price go down and results in less revenue thus profit for the farmers. Haven't they realized that they actually earn more when there is a drought, naturally reducing their output? So to boost their revenue, all they have to do is band together and set a farming quota and then make everybody adhere to that quota very much the same way as OPEC does and it will be guaranteed that they will be no need for subsidies or bailout. And at the same time, they can reduce the Co2 emission and reduce carbon footprint and use up less land and let those land be redistributed to other use like affordable housing. More $$ for the farmers, no more need for government subsidies/bailouts, better for the improvement and ending homelessness by creating affordable housing, win-win-win-win situation and this phenomenon is known by all Economics 101 students and yet no presidents, no politicians, nobody has ever dared to implement this and instead just keeps giving out handouts. Why??!! Lobby groups!! Agricultural industry has one of the most powerful lobby groups in the country. Nobody dares to touch them. I am still waiting to see one president who would have the guts to take on the agricultural industry and finally make it self-reliant. US' population is not even that large. WHY would we need an overproducing farming industry to produce so much food? Just to make everybody overeat and get fat and get all kinds of disease to cripple the healthcare system? LOL