Here are the straddle moves vs average past moves of the last 12 earnings. NFLX is undervalued versus its history. https://gyazo.com/13c638a457ba5d2a0fdd14315f0a6e94 https://gyazo.com/be997f5e2316557e75373e11dd3265ec After beating expectations for four straight quarters, NFLX had a modest move of only -1.5% vs 8.4% implied by the straddle. Historically, after modest moves NFLX has paid options straddle holders: Oct 2021 moved 2.2% vs 5.6% expected and the next quarter was a blowout 21.8% vs 7.4%. April 2023 moved only 3.2% vs 8.4% and the next quarter was about equal to expectations.
The first expiration after earnings is used, in this case Oct 18th. It is priced at 51.8 with NFLX at $695 or about 7.5%. There is a residual value of the straddle calculation depending on how many days are left after ex, in this case 1 day, and where the IV is expected to fall. So we trim off a little and estimate a 7.2% move attributable to earnings.