If Russia was behind Heathrow fire, is that an act of war?

Discussion in 'Politics' started by gwb-trading, Mar 21, 2025.

  1. gwb-trading

    gwb-trading

    Based on the news coming out of the U.K. today, it is looking more and more likely the fire at Heathrow airport was deliberately set. Which leaves the question -- Who is behind it?

    If Russia was behind Heathrow fire, is that an act of war?
    An act of Kremlin sabotage, if proven, would be a profound challenge to the Western world’s security architecture
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/20...s-behind-heathrow-fire-is-that-an-act-of-war/

    There will be one overriding hope inside Downing Street as counter-terror investigators examine the wreckage of the North Hyde electrical substation. Please, let it not be connected to Russia.

    It is hard enough having to field questions over why a single fire at a single station has grounded 1,351 flights and shut the world’s busiest airport for 24 hours. But if detectives find evidence of sabotage – and, in time, proof that it traces back to Moscow – it would pose a profound challenge to the security architecture of the Western world.

    Imagine you are Sir Keir Starmer in such a scenario (one might emerge in time, even if Russia is not to blame here). First of all, you would face the challenge of proving to the world that Vladimir Putin’s regime truly co-ordinated an attack.

    That would have been easier before the outbreak of the war in Ukraine. When Russia wanted to assassinate Sergei Skripal on the streets of Salisbury, it sent agents from the GRU, its military intelligence agency, loaded with a Soviet-era nerve agent. Bellingcat, the investigative news website, was able to find the military ID numbers and passport photos of the undercover operatives: the evidence was unanswerable.

    But as the West has expelled so many Russian spies in the years since then, Putin now relies on unprofessional foreign gangsters to carry out sabotage attacks across Europe. Some are Bulgarian spies, as The Telegraph reported in late 2024. Others are British nationals, such as 20-year-old Dylan Earl, who admitted burning down a Ukrainian-owned business in west London.

    If the Kremlin truly wanted to carry out an attack on critical infrastructure in the West, it would likely use middle-man after middle-man in an attempt to obscure its origins. Hybrid warfare, Putin knows, works best when nothing rises above the threshold for accountability.

    But say, in time, a link to the Russian state was established beyond doubt. In 2016, Nato declared that a hybrid attack on a member state could trigger an Article 5 response, in which all members would be required to come to the defence of the victim. In 2021, it reaffirmed that attacks on critical infrastructure could be deemed an act of war. With proof of Russian involvement – and evidence of significant damage, such as the grounding of 300,000 plane passengers – the natural question would be is Nato going to trigger Article 5?

    Play the tape forward and both answers, an attempt at “yes” and a decided “no”, play to the favour of the Kremlin. Britain could not trigger Article 5 alone. It would have to secure the unanimous agreement of all member states.

    Is Donald Trump’s America, let alone Hungary or even Italy, going to risk war with Russia over a small fire at a British power plant in which nobody was killed? The prospect is laughable.

    The same applies to a decision by Sir Keir to steer Nato away from invoking Article 5 in response to a Russian, Iranian or other kind of hybrid attack, either by sitting on evidence or refusing to lobby for action. Moscow, or whoever it might be, would have dispelled the ambiguity over whether serious attacks on critical infrastructure will lead to a ferocious retaliation by Nato.

    In both cases, Putin effectively gains carte blanche to carry out attacks without answer.

    Earlier this year, the Centre for European Policy Analysis, a Brussels-based think tank, issued an urgent call for Nato to clarify what Article 5 responses could follow a significant hybrid attack. Triggering it need not mean bombers are dispatched over the Kremlin. Clearly laying out the costs to Russia (and the risks involved to member states) could help secure buy-in for what would be only the second triggering of the article after 9/11.

    Burning down a power station could, for example, see sanctions placed on nations hoovering up great quantities of Russian oil, such as India; it could lead to the seizure of the $200 billion in frozen Russia assets held within Europe. Whether or not Moscow has anything to do with the fireball at Heathrow, it is past time for Western leaders to step up their efforts to deter such an attack.
     
    Ricter likes this.
  2. Tuxan

    Tuxan

    In the UK video surveillance is very dense so if they don't find much evidence, that's likely proof that it was a skilled operation and so likely state attack. MI5 are likely investigating. UK substations are very well designed, they are not known for exploding and the chances of this one our of hundreds of thousands?

    Russia does consider itself at war with the UK in reality so fingers crossed they find a coincidental explination.
     
    Last edited: Mar 21, 2025
    insider trading likes this.
  3. mervyn

    mervyn

    stupid post, why would the russians do that under putin direction? no real damages done, at best flights delayed.
     
  4. kashirin

    kashirin

    Uk is very lucky Putin is so soft. UK plans and carries with ukraine terrorist attacks in russia every day where people die

    given UK involvement in Ukraine war any other but Putin would bomb London into radioactive desert long ago

    those idiots somehow still dream how they will declare article 5 because some infrastructure malfunction and USA goes into thermonuclear war with Russia

    not gonna happen

    what's gonna happen - as USA and Russia are allies in the next 4 years at least - UK will be tamed and they better behave
     
    Last edited: Mar 22, 2025
  5. kashirin

    kashirin

     
  6. traderob

    traderob

    Hard to see how this wasn't Trump. Maybe the British had a tape of him getting urinated on at Buckingham Palace
     
    CaptainObvious likes this.
  7. trismes

    trismes

    Evidence duh.
    I mean Russias always a suspect given their form of fucking around in Europe but in this instance… looks like a traditional domestic cock up
     
  8. If the United States blew up the Nord Stream pipeline, was that an act of war. A thorough investigation of both incidents would be prudent.
     
  9. gwb-trading

    gwb-trading

    Let's catch up with all the sabotage that Russia has done widely across Europe.

    Western officials say Russia is behind a campaign of sabotage across Europe. This AP map shows it
    https://apnews.com/article/russia-u...rid-campaign-d61887dd3ec6151adf354c5bd3e6273e
     
    trismes likes this.
  10. Mercor

    Mercor

    Its likely these type of people

    upload_2025-3-22_9-55-52.png
     
    #10     Mar 22, 2025