Market is turning optimistic in recent days, I think the reason is as follows, 1) GDP is speeding in 2nd quarter 2) anticipating ECB's QE 3) Ukraine is out of sight of market But I sold ES in last friday, I think: 1) S&P has rised for 600 points without a 10% retreat. 2) QE3 is going over. 3)Market was over bought in recent days. In fact, in the chart, I noticed this rally looks very like the one in last May, so I expect S&P will go up for at most another 50 points then a retreat will come, I will add position when S&P reaches about 1980.
From reading the views of people who know a hell of a lt more than me, we've got lots more upside to come. 2000on the ES for starters
For those charting the S&P in a regression channel between here and 2050 is the obvious place to go short; experience, however, tells me it is likely that the early shorts will get severely tested before the real retreat. The depth on the last recession guaranties , so much as possible, that the bull market has years ahead of it, but not of course without some pullbacks and minor corrections along the way. One interesting observation is that the U.S. dollar futures, after hitting a high in mid 2001, and a low in 2008, are trading almost exactly where they were in mid 1995. During the first four years after the Financial Crisis the dollar yo-yo'ed, and the market, inversely, with it. The dollar and the market behaved as though tied at the hip! Those of us who followed the Dollar Futures had found the Holy Grail -- or so we thought. Now, since 2012, we have once again entered a period of dollar stability, relatively speaking, yet the bull market continues. Obviously the market and dollar are no longer quite so well correlated. Something other than a falling dollar is driving equities higher -- irrational exuberance; mom and pop moving back into mutual funds now that they hear on the nightly news that markets are reaching all time highs? -- is it "deja vu all over again"?? Friedman said inflation is everywhere and always a monetary phenomenon; the dollar is stable; the Fed's inflation does not exceed target; yet inflation in goods and services for ordinary mortals continues at a pace greater than the Fed's 2% target. The Fed's earlier experiment with Friedman's money supply model failed, and they long ago returned to interest rate control as their main tool. Was Friedman wrong? Or was he just being impractical in a world awash in dollars, and like all economists, forced to over simplify by assuming we would act rationally. In retrospect, could any economic assumption be more foolish than that! .
I believe that we're close the top http://barchart.eu/reports/futures-reports/338-futures-report-s-p500-es-f-7-2-2014