Hypothetical

Discussion in 'Options' started by Mrboucyballs, Sep 20, 2020.

  1. If you knew a stock was gonna jump say $200 what would be better?

    Current price is $200 a share.

    Would it be better to buy an option in the very in the money
    in the money
    at market
    out of the money
    very out of the money

    out of the money you could buy more contracts. would you potentially make more?
     
  2. Missing time horizon for the target exit! (Needed for time projection and for insuring proper Expiration is used for the options) -- Provide the Security as a "hypothetical" example!
    Some $200 priced choices:
    MSFT, VRSN, WDAY, V, ...
     
    Last edited: Sep 20, 2020
  3. thecoder

    thecoder

    If current spot is 100, and you expect it to double, then it makes sense to buy a very far OTM call, like strike 180:
    BSM_s(S=100,K=180,t=1,s=30%,r=0%,q=0%)
    BSM_e(S=200,K=180,t=0,s=30%,r=0%,q=0%)
    Call: premium=0.377538 Long: credit=-0.377538 payoff=20.000000 profit=19.622462(5197.481140%)
    This all depends also on initial IV (above 30% used)
    and also on the time of the option (above 1 year used).

    Ie. if strike 170 or strike 190 is used then the profit% is less than that for strike 180.
    That's: it's an optimization task depending on the parameters and estimates...
     
    Last edited: Sep 20, 2020

  4. Considering tesla. Did not want to say that word as I know brings lots of crazy
     
  5. I don't see a timeframe, so will plug in 90 Days and expect ATM IV on target date to reflect that of the same term options today. Here are the top Call candidates sorted by Return on Risk if your price and the 90 day time actually occurs. Some options may be excluded from this list due to Bid/Ask spreads that fail my (Spread/Mid)>0.3 criteria. (Since market is currently closed, these prices are weekend prices and should be taken with grain of salt.

    upload_2020-9-20_13-9-55.png
     
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