From the cycle perspective the inflation should come down until end of first half of 2026. So the market thinks there will be bigger inflation then it is right now because of Trumps tariff politics, but there is no evidence so far, that inflation really picks up that much. So this is just pure speculation, also because tariffs are used to negotiate new trade deals so that trade deficits are gone in the future. That is the real purpose of tariffs. I think the market does not really reflect that as Trump has been misunderstood. Also we have seen a recent strong US Dollar right from ca. 1.09 to 1.02 in the EURUSD but it just turned around some days ago, as it was only speculation in its nature. The same I think is true for US 10 year T-Notes. The rates have been going up very sharp in a few months to almost 5%. This is way too high, like Trump said, but he did not put in more arguments beside the fact it is, like my opinion. I see actually a full bubble as this fueled of pure speculation. Larry Williams showed in his forecast there are some strong signs that inflation should come down much further than it already has to the end of first or second quarter in 2026. If the market realized that inflation does not go up but instead falls further the interest rates can go down very sharply too as it has risen. What do you think on that ? Is Trump right that rates are way too high in the USA ?
Here are my thoughts... Your analysis raises several interesting points regarding inflation, interest rates, and the speculative nature of current market movements. Let's break down the key components of your argument. Tariffs and Inflation: You suggest that Trump's tariffs are primarily a tool for negotiating trade deals rather than a direct cause of persistent inflation. This perspective aligns with the idea that tariffs can lead to temporary price increases on certain goods, but the long-term effects on overall inflation depend on various factors, including global supply chains and trade relationships. If the negotiations lead to improved trade balances and reduced barriers, the inflationary pressures associated with tariffs may dissipate. US Dollar Strength: The recent fluctuations in the EUR/USD exchange rate illustrate how markets can react to speculation rather than fundamental economic conditions. The strength of the US dollar can be influenced by multiple factors, including interest rate expectations, economic data, and overall risk sentiment. If the market shifts its perception about future inflation and economic growth, it could lead to significant changes in currency valuations. Interest Rates on T-Notes: The sharp rise in US 10-year Treasury yields to nearly 5% reflects market sentiment that may be driven by short-term expectations about inflation and monetary policy. If inflation is indeed expected to decline, as you mention from Larry Williams' forecast, then there could be justification for lower interest rates in the longer term. Rising yields could be a reaction to transient concerns rather than sustained inflationary pressures. Market Speculation: You highlight a key concern in financial markets: that many movements are speculative rather than fundamental. If investors are reacting more to sentiment and perceived trends rather than data-driven expectations, this can create bubbles in various assets, including bonds and currencies. Trump’s Position on Interest Rates: Trump's assertion that interest rates are too high reflects a common criticism from leaders who believe that elevated rates could stifle economic growth, especially if inflation is lower than anticipated. The relationship between interest rates, inflation, and economic output is complex; historically, central banks raise rates to combat inflation but may lower them to stimulate growth. In conclusion, if Larry Williams' forecast and other economic indicators point toward declining inflation, it could lead to a reassessment of interest rates by the market. If inflation expectations become more grounded and the economic outlook improves, it is plausible that interest rates could decrease significantly. The situation you describe emphasizes the importance of distinguishing between speculation and fundamental economic analysis, particularly in an environment influenced by tariff policies and political discourse.
bla bla bla we all want the fucktard biden crime family back so the market will go up 100% while our currency value goes down 100%
I'm pretty sure deflation from China is going to go global soon. I doubt rates will go much higher. They probably start falling soon.
Rates are not too high, once they cut the way trump wants it the 10 yr is going jumpyyyy jumppppp above 5% ..... Let's be real here rates aren't going down as much as he is begging and wishing for..... Powell is not going to lower them to what trump probably wants, which is 0%. He may get 3% but no way 0%. Trump will have to wait until powell is done with his term in 2026 and get someone he knows will get rates to 0%, other than that its all political garbage as usual.
then Trump will preside over the greatest recession since the Great Depression. He’ll probably blame Obama.
I am definitely SHORT the bubble in that Image... LOL ! I am going to name that rainbow bubble... TETHER