Let's say that you understood that heavy sanctions would eventually come after the occupation on March 3. How would you time your entry?
For me I have to ask if this is the right question. We've all seen so many occasions when fundamental news does not move price, or even moves it in the opposite direction and this is a good example. On this one, my TA rules would have kept me from shorting RUB before mid-May, so I would have missed half of the 8% fall against the dollar. But I would have been mandated to go in long in late July, irrespective of the increased level of sanctions, and would then have been looking at a potential +90% price rise.
Alright, we gotta get on the same page here 1. Shorting ruble means going long USD/RUB on this chart 2. Not looking to get into a fundamental vs technical debate here. My question presumes that I have a fundamental view that Crimea invasion will *eventually* lead to sanctions that will lead to bad times for the ruble. And I'm just trying to time my entry.
1. Yes, obviously shorting RUB is done by going long USD/RUB. There isn't another practical way to do it as far as I know. Its just too obvious for words. 2. Your fundamental view was wrong and remains wrong. My technical view was right but I'd probably be out of that position by now. But I don't want to debate it either.