How to pick the entry moment in agriculture and metals trading? as I see there aren't much news like with companies stock trading, or it is more like forex trading which is based on event calendar ...
%% NOT very important in cash metals markets; generally speaking. Critical in leverage stuff like silver, havent seen a good trend in that for years. I'm doing a price study on a Canada Silver Co, but no entry as of yet. 200 week average works on a lot of ETFs...........................
At/near daily chart "support".... and/or daily chart "breakout above support". If you don't know what that means, see "Technical Analysis".
I trade for huge trends, check highs/lows last nine years in all futures, my system eventually nails the extremes, however, took me years to develop, backtest and 3 years to learn how to hedge properly, much much time, but been trading this method since early years of 1990's. *****However, my winning percentages are under 5 percent on underlying, but learned to over hedge so losing on futures, profit on hedged. And when nail extremes, get huge profits, system adds on as it trends. Then I learned how to hedge open profits when mini reversals happen. Charting works.
%% 1] I do something like that\ but i also do cash markets[ not so big trends usually] + leveraged stuff. 2]Like IBKR founder said in an old ad, on a horse , surrounded by yellow cabs; 3+] NEVER choose An Ordinary Investment Vehicle/ ''LOL\true,, 4.77 7]I do more metals than than grains+ also do things not listed in Chicago; but like they say in Chicago/ Vote Early + Vote Often/LOL Old Wall Street Journal article has an article about finding change on main street[NOT Wall Street], so i pick up a penny also on main street...........................................Seldom find Federal Reserve notes on main street, sometimes do. Do more SPY + QQQ related ETFs than metals or ag. 888.888] WATCH out for this some what rare but 10 bag/10 ag/pattern. Usually rural /usually an older person, most likely likes you, or knows you but certain exceptions apply; neighbor had about less than acre turnip greens,regular + 7 top. She says get all you want. I got way more than 10 grocery bags.......................................... Still need to give some more away.
I remember when I used to struggle with the question of entry. It took years for me to eventually get it, but let's just say that technical analysis is the answer.
%% Exactly . I'M sure ADM could give some help on grains entry + money management. LOW MISS River Channel [barges] added to the complexity. Good thing about ca$h metals business = entry is not very important @ all. If leverage is added= that'$ a whole different deal........ Put another way for me ; selling cash metals 52 weeks a year is much better than trying to pick a top or bottom 12 times[monthly] a year. Good thing for me that cashier @ cash metals dealer loves free fresh farm/vegetables.
My goal is ultimately to try to buy the low tick. GLD under 151 is just nice entry today. My reasons for getting long are not on the chart though. I am betting that gold is so out of favor right now that it gets back a bit more in favor, shorts take profit along with USD starting to get exhausted. Chart wise it is nice to have buyers previously and not all that long ago at these levels. That is about as good of a long setup on a chart as I get. Easy to get out if wrong, easy to add more if you want if goes lower.
%% Find a real good trend like what the dealers call stainless steel/ tin/ brass /VALE or DRLL; + ride it ............................................................... NOT in VALE, but good metals trend up about 10% + still going\ sometimes i may or may not sell into that[[sell long]/depending of the trend