How to make use of big swings/spikes in Bid/Ask?

Discussion in 'Options' started by Quanto, Mar 10, 2024.

  1. Quanto

    Quanto

    How to make use of big swings/spikes in Bid/Ask?

    The following data is snapshot data on last Friday:
    Code:
    Call Strike = 1.0 :
    
    2024-03-08-Fr-093526-EST   S=1.9000   B=0.50   A=1.25   BS=192   AS=120
    2024-03-08-Fr-095059-EST   S=1.9600   B=0.80   A=1.10   BS=182   AS=20  
    2024-03-08-Fr-100633-EST   S=1.9600   B=0.80   A=1.05   BS=178   AS=1  
    2024-03-08-Fr-102206-EST   S=1.9900   B=0.85   A=1.05   BS=124   AS=1  
    2024-03-08-Fr-103741-EST   S=1.9000   B=0.75   A=1.05   BS=179   AS=106
    2024-03-08-Fr-105314-EST   S=1.8900   B=0.75   A=1.05   BS=210   AS=114
    2024-03-08-Fr-110849-EST   S=1.8800   B=0.75   A=1.00   BS=2     AS=20  
    2024-03-08-Fr-112424-EST   S=1.8200   B=0.70   A=0.90   BS=5     AS=2  
    2024-03-08-Fr-113957-EST   S=1.8000   B=0.70   A=0.90   BS=2     AS=2  
    2024-03-08-Fr-115532-EST   S=1.9100   B=0.80   A=1.05   BS=2     AS=106
    2024-03-08-Fr-121105-EST   S=1.8300   B=0.70   A=1.00   BS=148   AS=110
    2024-03-08-Fr-122641-EST   S=1.8000   B=0.75   A=0.90   BS=2     AS=16  
    2024-03-08-Fr-124215-EST   S=1.8100   B=0.70   A=0.90   BS=1     AS=16  
    2024-03-08-Fr-125749-EST   S=1.7700   B=0.70   A=0.90   BS=3     AS=20  
    2024-03-08-Fr-131324-EST   S=1.8100   B=0.65   A=0.95   BS=199   AS=107
    2024-03-08-Fr-132857-EST   S=1.8000   B=0.20   A=0.95   BS=587   AS=109
    2024-03-08-Fr-134432-EST   S=1.7900   B=0.60   A=0.95   BS=212   AS=101
    2024-03-08-Fr-140005-EST   S=1.8000   B=0.65   A=0.95   BS=200   AS=107
    2024-03-08-Fr-141541-EST   S=1.8300   B=0.65   A=0.95   BS=216   AS=31  
    2024-03-08-Fr-143114-EST   S=1.8300   B=0.80   A=0.95   BS=2     AS=31  
    2024-03-08-Fr-144649-EST   S=1.8400   B=0.65   A=0.95   BS=188   AS=31  
    2024-03-08-Fr-150224-EST   S=1.8400   B=0.80   A=0.95   BS=5     AS=33  
    2024-03-08-Fr-151803-EST   S=1.8500   B=0.75   A=0.95   BS=2     AS=31  
    2024-03-08-Fr-153341-EST   S=1.8700   B=0.30   A=0.95   BS=228   AS=31  
    2024-03-08-Fr-154914-EST   S=1.8800   B=0.70   A=0.95   BS=218   AS=21  
    2024-03-08-Fr-155247-EST   S=1.8600   B=0.75   A=1.20   BS=5     AS=114
    
    Legend:
    S  : Underlying stock price
    B  : Bid
    A  : Ask
    BS : Bid size
    AS : Ask size
    
    Question: Why is it not possible to make use of these big price changes? :
    Bid 0.20 at 13:28:57
    Bid 0.30 at 15:33:41
    Ask 1.20 at 15:52:47
    Or can one make use of them in some options strategies? Which?
     
    Last edited: Mar 10, 2024
  2. It is hard to get fill. When you get fill when mkt moves against you
     
    murray t turtle and MarkBrown like this.
  3. Quanto

    Quanto

    Just some ideas:
    We need new order types with reversed logic, as addition to the current types:
    Code:
    Current order types:
      BUY_TO_OPEN              Ask      (fill happens at >= Ask)
      SELL_TO_CLOSE            Bid      (fill happens at <= Bid)
      SELL_TO_OPEN             Bid      (fill happens at <= Bid)
      BUY_TO_CLOSE             Ask      (fill happens at >= Ask)
    
    Additional order types needed:
      REVERSE_BUY_TO_OPEN      Bid      (fill happens at <= Bid)
      REVERSE_SELL_TO_CLOSE    Ask      (fill happens at >= Ask)
      REVERSE_SELL_TO_OPEN     Ask      (fill happens at >= Ask)
      REVERSE_BUY_TO_CLOSE     Bid      (fill happens at <= Bid)
    
    
    Then for the said cases one would do:
    Code:
    REVERSE_BUY_TO_OPEN the Bid 0.20
    REVERSE_BUY_TO_OPEN the Bid 0.30
    REVERSE_SELL_TO_OPEN the Ask 1.20
    
    Maybe the birth of "Reversals" or something that :)

    Goldman Sachs and others may freely use this idea of mine :)

    Such Reversals would help to stabilize the markets by preventing big spikes in Bid/Ask.
    B/c now traders would have a method at hand to make use of such big spikes, ie. such market anomalies.

    Other technicals:
    Maybe we now need to keep book also of these additional values:
    Reverse_Volume
    Reverse_OpenInterest

    But luckily nothing else :). So this is easily doable.
     
    Last edited: Mar 11, 2024
  4. you can set price for buy to open at bid
     
  5. Quanto

    Quanto

    True, but you don't get an immediate fill for your limit order.
    The above presented new reversal concept allows to get an immediate fill.
     
  6. Quanto

    Quanto

    Hmm. the above concept maybe has some bugs... :-(
    Will check again...
    Yes, is buggy b/c would allow an immediate arbitrage.
    Need a different concept...
    Back to the drawing board... :)
     
    Last edited: Mar 11, 2024
  7. %%
    2 proven methods;
    1] have a resting order that sells on open price gap;
    2] real estate does that all the time, but takes longer LOL.:D:D
    Best businesses do that most of the time, like WMT buys by the truck load + sells smaller profits:caution::caution: