http://www.neweconomics.org/gen/news_rweophantom.aspx This is from 2003........GOOD reading, as we all know as traders, things are not that difficult to understand and foresee...........it is the timing that gets us, JUST like it gets the mkts. Cows and pigs come home sooner or later. Like the farmer might sat: "They will come home when they are through romping around. Here is another nice read: Put down the comic book for 10 minutes. http://www.jubileeresearch.org/media/bubble010903.htm
Many of us saw this coming, not just Mr. Melcher. But as you say, it is the timing that confounds us. What is truly startling is that any money manager, banker, or real estate professional could be so out of touch as to think that the Greenspan liquidity bubble would not implode at some point down the road, with major consequences. What I did not see coming was the Fed rate cut, which coming in the timely manner it did, on expiration Friday, saved many a hedge fund whose dim-witted principals certainly did not deserve to be saved. Yet, I do understand that the Banking system can not be allowed to go under. What really annoys me, however, is the apparent insider trading that occurred.