In your experience/memory/judgement, how low could volty go? December ATM SPY Volty is currently around 10.4%.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=^VIX&t=5y&l=off&z=l&q=l&c=bnd,^GSPC http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=5y&s=^VIX&l=off&z=l&q=l&c=&ql=1 using distribution statistics the Prob that Vix will be > 12 in April = 49% Not a good bet. We need a good war in Asia to raise option volatilities. Maybe GS could bribe North Korea.
I had the exact same chart as you do on my screen! What is that prob? Is it the prob. volty will never visit above 12? Volty during the month of april? Other?
I looked at option prices. They seem to indicate prob of 33% of a visit to 27% by April, and visit to 18% w/ prob. of 88%.
Since April is only 4 months away, I would rather look at the 1 year chart. http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=^VIX&t=1y&l=off&z=l&q=l&c=bnd,^GSPC Something always happens. Hang in there.
Always remember buy low sell high... Always a timing factor when going long or short vol.... Hard to tell but dec is usually low vol...
Well, nobody wants to start a war before Christmas. The only compelling play for me is to buy Vol after the holidays.
Buying high and selling higher (or selling low and buying back lower) is even better... Most traders have a hard time understanding this simple idea, they prefer to chase tops and bottoms, which is extremely hard to do consistently.
true... but even in your quote.. your a still buying lower then your selling, and selling higher then your buying.. my point remains haha