How low can Natural Gas go?

Production good, weather warm. Thinking of shorting here but afraid I have missed the move lower and will get whipsawed. Thoughts?

 

ANY time you play NG you might "get whipsawed". (NG IS known as "the widow maker market", you know.) However...

Earlier it was posited that NG might spend 6 months between $1.75-$2.00.

Current price on NYMEX = $2.32.

FWIW...

 

Monthly chart for larger time frame view:

 

Short squeeze possible? How often does it break 2?

 

$1.43 chart low. Wow! That's still a lot of damage from here, should it get there. Might be a "trade of a lifetime" if it gets there again... all players should remain attentive and alert.

 

Historically, "$2-ish" has been a good place to buy. No guarantees for this time, of course.

 

Aren't you short puts?

 

Short KOLD when NG gets below $2... maybe 1.60-1.75
But all we need is a simple forecast showing artic air coming through the US and NG will rocket 20% higher in 3 days

 

If buy low + sell high = $$, NG is giving you half of that equation right now. 84% of global energy comes from fossil fuels. 24% of that number is NG.

I'm long NG with a time horizon of 3 years. So there you go.

 

Why do you want to swing trade NG?
Go do day trading.
Then you don't have to worry about a hot winter or freezing winter and those things.
Then you don't have to worry about how low it can go.

On most days, the day range is > 0.1 point (4%) which is more than
enough for day trading.

Occasionally the day range could be > 0.2 point (8%).
Where else can you find such a huge day range for trading?!