How do you predict the price before news trading?

News trading comes with sufficient level of thrill. I only rely on technical analysis to catch the market price. What do you do?

 

I make sure i am not in a (big) day trade right before news comes out that might have a major impact on the markets.

 

Use algos

 

%%
End of day, +occasional noon news;
mostly end of day. And do trends technical, trends fundamentals, funds + occasional forecasts, like the weather

 

lol, stay out of the market.

It's straight degenerate gambling on those events, no technical analysis will work in real time. All the major inter and intra-day algo's are rapidly re-pricing according to their models. When Powell speaks, real-time transcription on the most cutting edge hardware are crunching 100's of millions of parameters to correlate time/price/volume and keywords to news, social media feeds with network infrastructure and latency on their side .

Any successful trades are pure luck, most retail just get their accounts wrecked and liquidated when price moves like their stops don't exist.

Maybe you're the exception..

 

Wait 20 minutes. After the pre-news (t-5), after the initial reaction (t+5), after the reaction to the initial(t+15), after the secondary reaction (t+20).

Unless you were on the floor in the old days, there is no way to deal with it. Don't step in front a freight train. It also is a great time for HUGE slippage on stops. By the time you react as a retail, what ever happens is long gone and the secondary thing is also done.

Get popcorn, and take a break, that is how I "deal" with it.

 

The same as how you predict whether it's going to land on red in Russian Roulette.

 

%%
I would not try to make money like that, or a related pattern, even though i did some profit with single stocks\ not enough to suit me. W Buffet still does it some think.
Say MSFT buys Nuance + Shell buys BG.
Add in a lot of research+ If Carl Ichan is buying, so much the better buy .[IF all goes as planned MSFT + Shell buys may downtick some+ others go up LOL]
As far as making the money i want, I may find an ETF with those that I'm interested in weighted nicely, say 4- to 7.77%, more or less. with good trends

 

I have system that monitors all news around the world, been trading it over 20 years. It doesn't guess what the news brings, it waits seconds after release. You do enough backtesting, find the patterns that are wrong and big volume comes in, trade with volume. Risk little looking for homerun exits.

 

Incurable degenerate you As others already stated, get yourself checked into the nearest Traders Anonymous ASAP.