How do you avoid getting shaken out ?

Discussion in 'Trading' started by Sekiyo, Oct 27, 2024.

  1. Sekiyo

    Sekiyo

    IMG_1574.jpeg

    It’s a simple PA system based on reversals,
    A reversal is a break of support if long,
    Or a break of resistance if short.

    It’s a long/short system,
    It’s either long or short 1 contract.

    How to avoid going short at #3/#5 then buying back higher at #4/#6 ?

    Any rule of thumb ?

    Could be using thighter stops,
    If close > entry candle’s high then exit short.

    Here it doesn’t enter on bar close,
    But just assume it does.

    A guy said “A trendline should never be steepened but always flattened”. There’s something similar with horizontal lines.

    Just asking because …
    Everyone, but me, makes money here.

    :D
     
    Last edited: Oct 27, 2024
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  2. One buy one sell is a very brittle system. Imagine you are trading this with nine figures. What do you do?
     
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  3. Sekiyo

    Sekiyo

    You mean reversing thousands of contracts ?
    Well … I stop trading and buy an island :D

    But that’s a good point.
    A reversal might not be a sign to reverse.

    But still it’s a danger signal :caution:
    Therefore I should get out, at least.

    For example I exit a long on a reversal (Short),
    Then I either buy the next reversal (Bull)
    Or I sell the next breakout (Short)
     
    Last edited: Oct 27, 2024
  4. SunTrader

    SunTrader

    What do you consider support and resistance in that (IMO useless) chart?
     
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  5. Real Money

    Real Money

    You should be paying attention to the mag7 vols.
     
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  6. A poster by the name Ammo, ~10 years ago, successfully traded against the ES trend for a while using multiple buys / sells along the range inside the trend. I imagine he would be buying that island by now if he had just gone with the trend.
     
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  7. Sekiyo

    Sekiyo

    Supports are purple and resistances are orange.
    The levels are drawn programmatically,
    Agree it’s not beautiful but …
    The levels are here.
     
  8. SunTrader

    SunTrader

    So how are they of any value, especially Aug 12th-26th and for trades 3 & 5.
     
  9. mervyn

    mervyn

    if you read all these stories about futures traders, ones who made it were those swings/postions carry trades with no additional leverages with defined stop loss. in another word, you don't have big enough balance to trade more than you can afford.
     
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  10. Hi Sekiyo,

    One of my systems has multiple conditions for entry, including a rule that price MUST close on or beyond an empirically determined "best" EMA line.

    The TOS range chart below doesn't appear to be a perfect match to yours, but does suggest that this rule might have prevented the loss at #3 if a 10 EMA line was applied. My system currently uses a 14 EMA line, which also would have worked here.

    Might be something worth testing...

    Chart-must close beyond EMA.png
     
    #10     Oct 27, 2024
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