How do we modify black scholes to price earnings vol?

Discussion in 'Options' started by traider, Jan 7, 2024.

  1. traider

    traider

    What are some common approaches?
     
  2. destriero

    destriero

    You don't.
     
    taowave and ajacobson like this.
  3. ajacobson

    ajacobson

    Dest is spot on. You don't modify the model, you use the model to "discover" the vol.
     
    newwurldmn and destriero like this.
  4. destriero

    destriero

    Look at any dbase utility on front ends like TOS or CBOE's LiveVol which has an earnings tab which dials the pre-post report RV and implied. DO NOT indiscriminately buy calendars due to switch edge (D1/D2 vols).
     
    Adam777 likes this.
  5. Overnight

    Overnight

    FairPutâ„¢ part deux?
     
  6. Quanto

    Quanto

    People wrongly think BSM uses a constant IV.
    Yes, it does, but you can simply recompute daily using an updated IV that you believe is the most probable for the expiration date.... :D
    Voila! IV is no more constant... :)
     
    Last edited: Jan 7, 2024
  7. Quanto

    Quanto

    What is FairPut?
    A "fair" Put?
    Why? What's unfair or wrong with the normal Put?
     
  8. AfairPut (c)
     
  9. traider

    traider

    Put another way are all strikes affected in a similar way by earnings vol, it feels that ATM strikes are more affected as time shortens till the event occurs
     
  10. No, you can get all sort of bizarre looking implied vol profiles across the strikes (like the "W"). But the idea is to still use black scholes implied and combine it with some vol expectation analysis.
     
    #10     Jan 8, 2024
    nbbo likes this.