How a little known weather variable means a cold November for the natural gas market

Discussion in 'Commodity Futures' started by WeatherWealth, Oct 26, 2023.

  1. WeatherWealth

    WeatherWealth Sponsor

    Early this morning we caught wind of a little-known teleconnection called the WPO index going negative. This means a warm block to the NW of Alaska in early November. When the index is positive and there is cooling NW of Alaska, the U.S. Tends to have warm weather.
    Screenshot 2023-10-26 at 7.00.18 PM.png

    While most El Nino events could well suggest a warm December and bearish outlooks later, there was a buying opportunity earlier this morning on these models shifting. The EIA number was still above the 5-year average, but slightly bullish.

    We will be entering into a weather market for the next few months. It will take consistent major cold weather, however, for natural gas prices to get back above $4.00.

    Will El Nino strengthen? Will the WPO index remain negative or switch to positive later? That is what we are going to be looking at to 2nd guess weather models ahead of time in the weeks and months to come.
    Screenshot 2023-10-26 at 6.57.08 PM.png


    Jim Roemer
    www.bestweatherinc.com
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