Have you ever found a strategy/edge/alpha just by luck or had just a simple idea (like in the shower) and it just worked out? I had some strange idea under the shower which could not be backtested as it needs many correlations to sentiment which is notoriously hard to backtest. But as far as I tested it it seems to work. Only spent 2 months testing it so far 'thou. Wonder if you ever had that.
%% SURE, since some of the best things in life are simple, in most any business. But like John Trend follower Henry said, what some call'' luck'' I call a small sample. Some things are so simple , but work so well,really have to experience results to believe the results like; Mrs. Meyers snapped ''PUT your shopping cart up when you are thru'' Maybe even more important now with our tight labor market.
yeah i had this strategy play...it is called "fast money or fast women strategy." sometimes it works out and sometime not.
I've been trading a strategy that I dreamed up last September. It's a short term day trading strategy relying on some things which make it impossible to backtest. It was working wonderfully until May after which it flattened out and then today I had my butt kicked with its worst day ever. Here is the cumulative % PNL since inception: Without a backtest to compare against its very hard for me to have the confidence to jump back in tomorrow. Maybe I will continue at 1/10th the size and see if it comes back to life.
what stocks u traded that got your butt kicked today? i missed an earning play on one of my stock that had earning after hour today. it pops 12% after hour. oh well...onward to the next earning play.