So my daughter and son in law grow wheat and barley in Montana. The price hasn't been high for years. Hard to get it to market. They may see higher prices for their crops in the next year or so...A huge amount of wheat comes from Canada into the US. But they will probably pay higher prices for their fertilizers (potash and nitrogen)...Tariffs Who wins and who loses?? Comment...But don't be a hoser eh!!
President Xi has already tariffed the US grains. So shouldn't corn, soy ... be cheaper in the US? But the US farmers are going to suffer.
It seems like there are about 10 variables that can (and will) change grain prices... I'll list a few...Some may exasperate the problems (prices), some may change prices by miniscule amounts. I'll be all over the map on this one... Gas and oil costs...Need to run those diesel engines. Tractor and combine parts... Tariffs coming in and going out of the US. Muslim populations around the world...Very little (or no pork), maybe more grains. Yeah, I know, they don't eat pork. But some do...Just like use alcohol. Wheat allergy and celiac disease...Gluten Railroad infrastructure and problems... Other countries (AZ, Brazil) growing more... Taste changes...What would you rather have, a barley shake or a protein shake?? Government subsidies or lack there of... Acts of God... Large corporations going into farming...Pricing other farmers out of the markets. My mind goes back to the USSR in the 1950's to the 70's I believe. They would have tremendous wheat crops...Year after year. The problem was they had no way (infrastructure) to get their crops to market!! Below is an AI of their situation...Just looking at all the variables out there. The Soviet Union experienced wheat shortages due to a variety of factors, including droughts, cold climates, and poor agricultural systems. These shortages led to bread lines and the need to purchase grain from other countries. Causes of wheat shortages Droughts: Droughts in 1963 and 1972 reduced grain harvests Cold climates: Cold weather prevented the farming of much arable land Irregular droughts: Frequent droughts made crop failure common Poor agricultural systems: The Soviet Union's agricultural system was not well-suited to the climate Requisitioning: The government seized grain from peasants, which discouraged production Poor maintenance: Poor maintenance of harvesting machines reduced their effectiveness Consequences of wheat shortages Bread lines Shortages led to bread lines Dependence on foreign grain The Soviet Union had to purchase grain from other countries to meet its needs Higher food prices in the U.S. The U.S. experienced higher food prices due to the Soviet Union's poor grain harvest in 1972 Criticism of the Nixon administration The U.S. intelligence community's failure to warn policymakers about the poor harvest led to criticism of the Nixon administration.
let me put it this way, if your family can work at brazilian wage levels, which i don't know much about, your family will have the cost advantage. if not, you are in disadvantage. with modern arg tech/chem, there would not be any global food shortage.
India, the most populous nation on earth has surplus grains and sugar. For maintaining food security the government regularly buys from the farmers. After giving free grains to poor people the government is struggling with surplus. WTO does not allow that government procured grain to be sold in the international market. So to stop storage losses the Indian government gives away the free grains to needy nations like Afghanistan, Egypt etc. Being a tropical country it does import some fruits like apples etc. But those are not absolute essentials as it has ample production of tropical fruit. It surely has shortage of oil seeds and pulses. Now the country is relying on agricultural technology in its pursuit of more oil seed and pulses production. India is negotiating with the US on importing more walnuts, almonds, apples etc. This is one of the giveaways in the trade deal that India is working with the Trump administration. The other one Trump is asking for is 0% import duties on Tesla cars. Indian government is unlikely to give into this. They may reduce duties but not down to 0%.
What tRump and buddies don't get is that there are very few commodities, grown or mined, that are truly precious. That includes almost all of the so-called precious metals and rare earths. So trying to squeeze one country or another doesn't work other than on a temporary basis. A useless unending game of whack-a-mole until one side decides it isn't working. In current negotiations I'll bet on tRump blinking first time and again. Wheat may move higher, but I seriously doubt higher prices will sustain very long. Like they say - the solution to higher prices ... is higher prices.
Talked with my daughter and son in law last night. We talked a bit about the crops. He said they bought a huge amount of nitrogen/potash this week. They were concerned about the tariffs coming up. He also mentioned he is running his own seeds through the cleaning process to reuse...Using computers, blowers, electron eyes. It should aid in premiums for better quality products delivered. They do rotate their crops...They let some ground go fallow on their own. They also get some money from the government for not planting in certain locations...Preserve prairie type of thing. Early spring there...They went by the creek/crick to see what's happening. No major flooding...But a lot of water/mud. Boring stuff...
Coming to nitrogen and potash, traditional urea manufacture uses natural gas as input. Chinese researchers have developed liquid nano urea which does not require natural gas as input. Further, this product is smaller in size and is economical to transport. Some Indian companies bought this technology from the Chinese researchers and are now extending this approach into other fertilisers like DAP, NPK etc. https://www.iffco.in/en/nano-urea-liquid-fertilizer https://www.iffco.in/en/nano-dap-liquid https://www.iffco.in/en/nano-fertilisers https://www.business-standard.com/c...rtiliser-in-retail-market-124120501005_1.html This, I believe would help in ensuring better food security without the associated green house gases.
Better absorption/intake... The problem is you would have to ship it, then railroad tank the product to the growing areas of the world (bulk). Natural gas (urea), may be cheaper and easier to distribute to Timbuktu (US slang for the furthest place on earth)... Your product could/would be good for the home gardener/small specialty farmer...