Not sure that it's possible to get a "top" with the Fed printing a hundred billion per month. Are family offices and pension funds with 30 year horizons going to dump shares en masse to slowly lose money in Treasuries or cash? At most we'll see a temporary pause, and probably not even that.
I like your optimistic pessimism but I'm more pessimistic than you. If Asia slows down any more than it is now due to the impact of the resurgent covid there, I expect a March 2020 like drop sooner than the "expected" Q1 2022 crash. Over a decade or more it's an irrelevant anomaly, but for anyone looking to permanently drink margaritas under palm trees in the next 3-5 years, it's a big deal.
Maybe if the Earth gets hit by a meteor (knock on wood), depending on the size of the meteor. Even major natural disasters will henceforth be seen as bullish since they trigger a flood of government cash. Besides the Fed raising rates back to positive levels, about the only possible bearish catalyst is what's going on in China: the government aggressively clamping down on profits and the megalomaniacal aspirations of superhero entrepreneurs. It almost goes without saying that nothing like that will happen in the USA.
There could be a temporary top... look at something like the NY FANG index. The "real" top won't occur until the market "changes its mind"... from some perceived threat or most likely due to Fed policy changes. IOW... likely, not yet.
I agree with talking heads re if we do get a minor correction the initial target for s&p is 50sma. Only if it loses 100sma then may turn into major drop.
Doubt the significance of 100 MA. Mr. Market will "hang in there" until at least the 200 MA. (Some book somewhere... that apparently everyone has read... said, "200MA is important.)
True, loss of 200 = institutional sell signal. I remember 3550 was a key level months ago. Main thing is remember it has bounced off the 50 repeatedly. So if it does finally lose the 100 that's a traffic signal yellow light, 200 = red light