Question : Project the share price of TSLA in March 2025, based on the last 4 years. Grok 3 answer: Projecting the Tesla (TSLA) share price for March 2025 based on the last four years requires analyzing historical price trends and growth patterns while considering the inherent volatility and external factors affecting the stock. The past four years (2021–2024) provide a mix of significant growth, corrections, and recovery, which can inform a reasonable extrapolation. However, stock price projections are speculative and subject to market conditions, company performance, and broader economic factors, so this will be a simplified estimation based on available historical data and trends. Step 1: Historical Price Data (End of March, 2021–2024) To establish a baseline, let’s approximate TSLA’s closing prices at the end of March for the past four years, adjusted for any stock splits (e.g., the 3-for-1 split in August 2022). Prices are sourced from general historical trends available in financial records: March 31, 2021: ~$222.60 (post-split adjusted, pre-split ~$667.80). March 31, 2022: ~$359.20 (post-split adjusted, pre-split ~$1,077.60). March 31, 2023: ~$207.46. March 29, 2024: ~$175.79 (using the last trading day of March). Step 2: Calculate Annual Growth Rates Using these approximate end-of-March prices, we can calculate the year-over-year percentage changes: 2021 to 2022: ($359.20 - $222.60) / $222.60 = ~61.4% increase. 2022 to 2023: ($207.46 - $359.20) / $359.20 = ~-42.3% decrease. 2023 to 2024: ($175.79 - $207.46) / $207.46 = ~-15.3% decrease. The compound annual growth rate (CAGR) over this period provides a smoothed average: Starting value (March 2021): $222.60. Ending value (March 2024): $175.79. Number of years: 3. CAGR = ($175.79 / $222.60)^(1/3) - 1 = ~ -7.6% per year. This negative CAGR reflects the volatile nature of TSLA, with a massive gain in 2021–2022 followed by two years of declines amid market corrections, rising interest rates, and EV competition. Step 3: Extrapolate to March 2025 Using the CAGR of -7.6%, we can project forward from March 2024: March 2024 price: $175.79. Projected March 2025 price = $175.79 × (1 - 0.076) = ~$162.41. However, this assumes the downward trend continues unchanged, which may not reflect Tesla’s potential catalysts (e.g., new models, Full Self-Driving advancements, or energy storage growth) or its historical tendency to rebound after corrections. Step 4: Adjust for Volatility and Trends TSLA’s price history shows significant swings rather than a steady decline: 2021–2022: Strong growth driven by EV adoption and production ramps (e.g., Shanghai Gigafactory). 2022–2023: A sharp decline due to macroeconomic headwinds (e.g., inflation, interest rates) and Elon Musk’s Twitter acquisition. 2023–2024: Further softening amid EV price wars and slower sales growth, though late 2024 saw a rebound (e.g., hitting $479.86 in December 2024 before correcting). Given Tesla’s current price as of February 14, 2025, was $355.84 (per historical data), and considering its recovery from the March 2024 low of $175.79, a simple linear extrapolation of the last four years may underestimate growth potential. Analysts often cite Tesla’s innovation and market leadership as drivers for future upside. For a more balanced projection, let’s consider an alternative based on the average annual price change magnitude (ignoring direction) and recent momentum: Average absolute annual change: (|61.4%| + |-42.3%| + |-15.3%|) / 3 = ~39.7%. From February 2025 ($355.84), applying a 39.7% increase (reflecting a potential rebound) yields ~$497.02 by March 2025 (a one-month move, so this is aggressive). A more conservative 10% increase over one month, aligning with recent volatility, yields ~$391.42. Step 5: Final Projection Given the last four years’ rollercoaster—boom in 2021, bust in 2022–2023, and partial recovery in 2024—a projection for March 2025 should balance historical volatility with Tesla’s growth narrative. The CAGR method suggests $162.41, but this ignores the upward momentum seen in late 2024 and early 2025. A midpoint between the current price ($355.84) and a moderate growth scenario (e.g., $391.42) seems plausible: Projected TSLA price for March 31, 2025: ~$375–$400. This range assumes a slight upward trend from February 2025, consistent with Tesla’s historical resilience and analyst optimism (e.g., average 12-month targets around $315–$346, with some as high as $550), adjusted for a shorter two-month horizon. Caveats Volatility: TSLA’s price can swing dramatically month-to-month (e.g., -18% in December 2024–January 2025). External Factors: Economic conditions, competition (e.g., BYD), and Musk’s decisions could alter this trajectory. Data Limitation: Exact March 2025 predictions require more granular daily data and forward-looking catalysts not fully captured here. Thus, based on the last four years’ trends, a TSLA share price of $375–$400 in March 2025 is a reasonable estimate, blending historical performance with recent recovery signals.
https://amp.scmp.com/news/china/sci...cientists-musks-grok-squad-line-against-china Chinese media quickly took notice, releasing articles highlighting the Chinese talent on the xAI team, including a core member who went to Zhejiang University – the university DeepSeek founder Liang Wenfeng also attended. Several posts on X expressed similar sentiments. A user called “seclink” posted in Chinese to more than 20,000 followers that in the field of large language models “a group of Chinese in the US and a group of Chinese in China are competing with each other”.
It's interesting how it shows it's reasoning trace as it's computing the final answer. Asking Grok about the top 5 sources of misinformation: Curious how long it will take Musk to hardcode answers that are more in alignment to the imaginary mythic character of free speech that he is curating.