I'm of the school that the 2000-2002 market was just a correction in a 25 year super cycle of the most massive greed in world history and its ending. When 30% of all ivy league grads run to wall street it showed a huge gold rush mentality. The end is here and i expect tough tough times the next 10-20 years. The world got fat and complacent and now its time to get butchered. I just pray no world wars start as the poverty sets in. The have nots of the world (china,india,brazil) tasted the good life and won't give it up easy
Another overly pessimistic view. Let's not forget the Dow and other indexes broke to new highs. It certainly won't be a smooth ride from here on but I wouldn't bet too much on catastrophic scenarios and a return to 2002 levels or below . Let's not forget the bears have been dead wrong on the US economy. Bears are wrong about what 75%of the time ? or worse ... bears are long dead and buried to play this reversal unfortunately for them
Let me get this straight. A 6% correction (so far) is reason enough to start speculating about huge economic shifts, world wars, massive global poverty and the like?
technology will change the mindset and the way we live. We need more Bill Gates, and Steve Jobs, and Al Gore's(inventor of the internet) in this world. A fundamental shift in how we live, will cause the next bubble in equities.
Don't spell the doom for equities, if Oil started heading towards 50 dollars I would be more concerned. This is a orchestrated move sanctioned by the government, so that the FED is not gridlocked by asset inflation. The FED truely wants to control mass psychology and economic cycles, they are hitting equities so that the psychological implications don't raise the cost of borrowing for the government, since we are printing money to finance war at unsurpassed rates. They need some pessimism to enter the marketplace so that they can enter a easing cycle, and buy time for cheap financing with increased bond prices, and lower treasury yields. The price of Oil is the major tipoff, its a indirect barometer of global liquidity. And notice Oil didn't budge much. If you want to spell the end of the world and a significant downturn, then Oil has to follow equities down. And it isn't. So something is amiss.
Let's not forget MASSIVE GOVERNMENT as a likely cause as well. Last GDP increase all due to gov't spending. When the economy slows (now likely), the deficit will balloon, raising interest rates as govt will "crowd - out" the private sector in it's quest to stay afloat.